I've read this important article closely and have excerpted the firstly and the lastly money shots:
In a speech at the White House, Mr. Biden said he was launching a new phase in the fight against the coronavirus, with a goal of at least partly vaccinating 70 percent of adults by Independence Day...
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As of Tuesday...more than 56 percent of adults--or almost 148 million people--had received at least one shot.
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...the president said, if 70 percent...about 35 million more... adults have received at least one shot of vaccine by July 4, “Americans will have taken a serious step toward a return to normal.”
...the president said, if 70 percent...about 35 million more... adults have received at least one shot of vaccine by July 4, “Americans will have taken a serious step toward a return to normal.”
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To get there, Mr. Biden said, the government must shift the focus from mass vaccination sites to , pharmacies and other local settings
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He warned that the nation would be vaccinating people into the fall.
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He warned that the nation would be vaccinating people into the fall.
It is an admission of defeat. Biden and his team take promises he makes on the campaign trail or in office very seriously and even with my memory I remember the July 4 promise. More than any other candidate or president I can remember, Joe Biden does not overpromise. He may have here, even though this is a defeat. 70% immunity was the absolute lowest figure given by Dr. Fauci when he began giving numbers. Fauci acknowledged that he had deliberately low-balled because 1) noone really knows, and 2) 70% was the most reasonable attainable of those expert guesses. As the fall deepened and then gave way to winter however Fauci deliberately raised the target--70%-75%, 80%, his highest figure was 90%, the figure the NYT has used to calculate Herd Immunity Day. So this is a defeat:
1) 70% of partially vaccinated adults is a ludicrous low-ball that almost certainly has little to do with returning to normalcy;
2) Only 574k/day additional adults need get one shot to reach 70% by July 4, thus providing the second justification, feasibility, for low-balling. That’s a layup. POJO will easily reach that and more probably double it. It’s the classic political “set low expectations” and declare victory ploy.
3) July 4 is no longer Return to Normalcy Day it is "Serious Step" Day, and see one and two above;
4) we're going to be vaccinating into the fall;
5) the longer it takes to reach the true herd immunity percentage the greater the likelihood the virus will mutate and push a return to normalcy back still further, necessitating additional vaccinations even of those already fully vaccinated.
14-day changes
-26% Cases.
-11% Hospitalizations.
-2% Deaths. Boy oh boy, Deaths creeping up again.
7-day daily averages
48,003 Cases. Down.
40,852 Hospitalizations. Down.
720 Deaths. Up.
1.76% D-H rate. Unchanged.
2,194,483 Vax. Down.
Herd Immunity (90%) Day
October 24. Further back twelve more days from yesterday. That thing was at one time in the high teens in July. Biden has lost over three months!
President Biden Grade C
