Friday, July 09, 2021

COVID-19 BIDEN+169

 Hmm.


The Big Picture in Cases is rosy, just like the color of the Quasi's graph. Yeah, we see that little tail at extreme right, but come on, it's still dang good.

In the very near term, the trough is July 5, the picture literally and figuratively is distorted, but clearly there has been a sharp increase July 6 through 8 relative to the immediate past.

In the Times' two-week percentage change metric the number of cases rose 39% June 25-July 8. and rose a similar percentage for the July 7 iteration.  The trough in that closeup is a 7-day average 11,795/day July 5. The mother of all troughs was a 7-day average 11,134/day June 20, the lowest number since March 26, 2020, when 46-1 was floundering all over the place. The latest iteration, July 8 of the 7-day average is 16,208/day, identical to what it was June 2, 2021.

That's too steep a rise over three iterations to be statistical noise. Clearly, summer gatherings and the Delta variant have fueled it.

There's a two week lag between cases and deaths, some lesser period of time between cases and hospitalizations. Right about now you'd expect to see a slight uptick in those other categories, and indeed you do. Seven-day average deaths June 25-July 8 are 194, up twelve over the June 24-July 7 average. The hospitalizations trough was 16,618/day June 29. The most recent data from the Times is  17,150 July 6. The 7-day average has risen each iteration from June 29 through July 6. Again: In the history of the coronavirus in the United States, these are minuscule numbers, the daily increases mockably small (12? 12?!) but the most recent trend, and that is what it is, trend not artifact, is clearly up, bad.