Friday, July 30, 2021

COVID-19 BIDEN+190 (July 29)

14-day changes

+151% Cases. Up.
+76% Hospitalizations. Up.
+15%  Deaths. Up.

7-day daily averages

71,621 new Cases. Up 4.3k average per day. Cases have risen twenty-six consecutive iterations of the 7-day daily average since 10,608 on July 5, a 700% increase in less than a month.
NA Hospitalizations.
321 Deaths. Up 4 average/day. The deaths daily average has increased ten consecutive iterations from 248 in the July 20 iteration. Deaths are up 77% since July 20.

CDC's ensemble deaths forecast goes out as far as one month from now. The ensemble's four constituent weekly forecasts all increase, so there is reason to expect that the current forecast high one month from now will be higher in the next weekly forecast. The forecast is cumulative weekly deaths. To make the metric consistent with the daily numbers I have divided the forecast by seven. With that explanation the CDC forecasts 522 deaths/day one month from now.