India was the first country ravaged by Hurricane Delta. India's cases and deaths graphs from Johns Hopkins:
India's Delta-driven cases peaked at 414,188 on May 6, 2021. India was almost completely unvaccinated when delta came ashore. Delta swept passed India exceedingly quickly. Delta-driven cases began their clear rise on April 1. 81k cases. Thirty-six days later cases peaked and immediately began declining. Cases bottomed out on July 24 before rising slightly. Deaths peaked in that anomalous-looking spike at 7,374 on June 10. On July 27, India reported 43,654 new cases and 640 new deaths. Lag, yes, I know I know I know. But the death interval isn't thirty-four days either. Besides those two weird minarets deaths declined from mid-June forward.
The U.S. peaked, before Delta struck and before vaccinations, at 300,462 cases, not totally dissimilar to India's peak, on January 2, 2021. Cases leveled in mid-February and bottomed out in early July. And then Delta came ashore. It's a little arbitrary in dating Delta's dawn in the U.S. but I have chosen July 6, 24,224 new cases. Is our July 6 India's April 1? If so, we had about one-quarter the cases India had on Delta Dawn. If so, following India's course precisely, Delta-driven cases will peak in the U.S. on August 11. I don't see that happening. I see the Delta rise continuing for way longer than that.
Deaths in the U.S. peaked at that anomalous-looking spike on April 7, 2021 at 2,593. Lag, yes, I know I know I know but the death interval isn't three+ months either. On July 27, with the adult population 69% vaccinated the U.S. reported 70,740 new cases and only 533 deaths. Seventy-five percent more new cases than India on July 27 yet over one hundred fewer deaths. Indeed, the current daily death pattern is indistinguishable from several iterations going back to the beginning of June. Of course, Delta hit the U.S. just recently. Of course. Of course, cases are going to rise. The death interval is not baked into the death numbers yet. Of course, deaths will rise as cases continue to rise. But how much? Maybe to that mini-minaret of late May, 1,362? Reasonable. But beyond a reasonable doubt U.S. deaths are not going to rise to that April 7 spire.
