+142% Cases (148% July 28 iteration)
+83% Hospitalizations (73% July 28 iteration)
+27% Deaths (+13% July 28 iteration)
So the cases increase has slowed a little; the hospitalizations increase has sped up considerably, and deaths have more than doubled. The C-H interval is supposed to be one week and throughout the epidemic in the U.S. cases and hospitalizations have moved pretty much in tandem. They're moving pretty much in tandem now but backasswards: cases began rising July 6 hospitalizations June 29. Hospitalization does not precede infection. The case-death interval is supposed to be three-four weeks. The case to hospitalization interval is supposed to be one week; hospitalization to death interval, two-three weeks. By those rules of thumb cases from July 2-15, when they were very low compared to, say, the last week, and included the all-time low point since the epidemic took hold on July 5, are now being processed as deaths. The C-D interval does not explain the current 14-day 27% jump. The data reflect reporting lag.
Daily averages July 27 thru Aug. 2)
85,866 new cases. Up from 79,763 July 26-Aug 1.
46,447 new hospitalizations.Up from the most recent historical h-data is 43,919 July 25-31.
341 new deaths, the third straight iteration of increases.
It's bad, which is expected, it's getting worse (except today's 14-day cases change), and it's going to get worser before it gets better.
