Friday, August 06, 2021

Rapid Increase in Circulation of the...Delta Variant — Mesa County, Colorado, April–June 2021

What we want to know is what percentage of the vaxed subject population got infected, were symptomatic, were hospitalized, and who died, and folks, except for the percentage of fully vaccinated in 65 and older who contracted COVID (27.5%) I cannot see that hard data in this report. The authors use terminology, e.g. "significantly higher" to characterize infections and fatalities among the vaccinated but neither in the report nor in the table at bottom are the numbers reported. If somebody points me to what I missed I will credit them in print (or not, as they wish). If this is not clarified by abler reporting (So far only Reuters has written about the report and there are no hard data mentioned beyond the one I see) I will go nuts on CDC.

Summary

During April–June 2021, COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant increased rapidly in Mesa County, Colorado. Compared with that in other Colorado counties, incidence, intensive care unit admissions, COVID-19 case fatality ratios, and the proportion of cases in fully vaccinated persons were significantly higher in Mesa County. Crude vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection was estimated to be 78% for Mesa County and 89% for other Colorado counties.


What are the implications for public health practice?

...

On May 5, 2021, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment...identified the first five COVID-19 cases caused by the...Delta variant in Mesa County...All five initial cases were associated with school settings. Through early June, Mesa County experienced a marked increase in the proportion of Delta variant cases...7-day [Delta cases]...more than doubled, from 43% for the week ending May 1 to 88% for the week ending June 5...in early May in Mesa County... 36% of eligible residents fully vaccinated...compared to 44% statewide...In addition, during the same time [April 27-June 6] period, the proportion of COVID-19 cases in persons who were fully vaccinated (vaccine breakthrough cases) was significantly higher in Mesa County compared with that in all other Colorado counties...

...

...the proportion of breakthrough cases was significantly higher in Mesa County than in all other Colorado counties...In Mesa County, the proportion of persons aged ≥65 years with COVID-19 who were fully vaccinated (27.5%) was significantly higher than that in all other Colorado counties (17.4%). 

...

...seven [outbreaks occurred] in residential care facilities...had at least one Delta variant case. Average vaccination coverage in these seven residential facilities was 87% among residents...and 50% among staff members...; Five of these seven outbreaks involved at least one case in a fully vaccinated resident or staff member.††

...

The slightly lower crude VE [Vaccine Efficacy] estimate against symptomatic infection in Mesa County may lend support to previous findings that COVID-19 vaccines provide modestly lower protection against symptomatic infection with the Delta variant (8). Alternatively, because the Delta variant was circulating at higher levels in Mesa County than in other Colorado counties, the lower VE in Mesa County might reflect the much higher exposure to circulating virus among vaccinated persons.

I have never understood statements like that last. Public understanding is that vaccines protect the vaccinated from infection duh. The public does not get that vaccines, e.g., protect a vaxed person from getting infected if you're around one infected person, ten infected persons or 100.

Discussion

...CDPHE estimates that fewer than 10% of cases during the time period occurred in congregate settings.