Trump's ("four to six weeks") War of Choice Now at Six Months, Goals Unachieved, Iran Emboldened but Vulnerable, U.S. Weaker
Iran was on the ropes before the attack
In the runup to the war, the Islamic Republic appeared more vulnerable than at any point since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded in 1980.
Iran’s currency had cratered, setting off some of the biggest anti-government protests in its history, which were brutally suppressed in January, with thousands killed. Israel and the U.S. had pounded its military and nuclear sites during a 12-day war the previous summer, and its militant allies had been throttled in the wars that followed Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza.
But the tide changed shortly after the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes, as Iran’s leaders were quickly replaced and its people — sheltering from the war — ignored exhortations from the attackers to rise up again.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran is now determined to exert permanent control over the strait, to use it to ward off future attacks and secure other concessions, while giving no ground on its disputed nuclear program. It’s a risky gamble, especially as the U.S. tightens its blockade and vows new sanctions on Iran’s already battered economy.
“Tehran’s danger is confusing its ability to survive with victory and demanding more than its leverage can deliver"...
AP
