Sergei!
John!
...
Okay, okay, you can have Crimea.
The U.S. is going to have to do this. The people of Crimea want to be with Russia; the referendum was rushed and unfairly worded but there is no doubt that a majority want to be with Russia. Giving in on this will make Obama look bad, another red line turned green, but you cannot bargain on your knees and that is the U.S. position. From Obama to the most strident Republicans, the U.S. has, properly, ruled out a military confrontation and that is the only way Crimea would be returned to Ukraine. Conceding on Crimea is truly the least difficult of the many difficulties for the U.S. in these talks.
Now lift the sanctions.
Now lift the sanctions.
Sergie, let's take a walk.
Again?
Okay, we will lift the sanctions BUT NO UKRAINE, SERGEI! Big red line, there. REALLY red. BIG.
Again?
Okay, we will lift the sanctions BUT NO UKRAINE, SERGEI! Big red line, there. REALLY red. BIG.
Okay. We will not invade. Lift the sanctions.
Pull your troops back off the border first.
Okay, we will pull them off the border and I will sign that we will not invade and then you lift the sanctions.
Pull your troops back off the border first.
Okay, we will pull them off the border and I will sign that we will not invade and then you lift the sanctions.
Work this out with the Ukrainian gov...
...Coup leaders.
...With the Ukrainian representatives in Kiev first.
Lift the sanctions!
The invasion and annexation of Crimea were the cause of the sanctions. Russia does not like them and wants them lifted but it's not giving Crimea back. Once the U.S. acknowledges, even implicitly by not bringing it up, that Russia has Crimea for good, how does it leverage its sanctions? One idea essentially is tit-for-tat, forever. That is, disengage from Russia. After a generation of integrating them...disintegrate them!, i.e. isolate them. Kicking Russia out of the G8 was an act of disintegration. There is much that is appealing to disintegration! But then they wouldn't be talking. Putin wouldn't have called Obama, Kerry wouldn't have flown to Paris. Russia doesn't want that. So permanent sanctions are not the preferred option, at least. And at least for now. The idea doesn't sound credible. Bush43 sanctioned Russia after the Georgia war--and lifted them after a year. It takes a lot of discipline, and a willingness to endure some economic pain oneself to sustain sanctions. Pursuit of happiness types don't do economic sanctions well. But lifting the sanctions now, as in the imaginary dialogue above, also t'ain't gonna happen! They've been in place for what, two weeks? Obama just came back from Europe. No. The sanctions are worth something, they are worth something to the Russians. Kerry can't get Crimea back with the sanctions. What can he get?
...Coup leaders.
...With the Ukrainian representatives in Kiev first.
Lift the sanctions!
The invasion and annexation of Crimea were the cause of the sanctions. Russia does not like them and wants them lifted but it's not giving Crimea back. Once the U.S. acknowledges, even implicitly by not bringing it up, that Russia has Crimea for good, how does it leverage its sanctions? One idea essentially is tit-for-tat, forever. That is, disengage from Russia. After a generation of integrating them...disintegrate them!, i.e. isolate them. Kicking Russia out of the G8 was an act of disintegration. There is much that is appealing to disintegration! But then they wouldn't be talking. Putin wouldn't have called Obama, Kerry wouldn't have flown to Paris. Russia doesn't want that. So permanent sanctions are not the preferred option, at least. And at least for now. The idea doesn't sound credible. Bush43 sanctioned Russia after the Georgia war--and lifted them after a year. It takes a lot of discipline, and a willingness to endure some economic pain oneself to sustain sanctions. Pursuit of happiness types don't do economic sanctions well. But lifting the sanctions now, as in the imaginary dialogue above, also t'ain't gonna happen! They've been in place for what, two weeks? Obama just came back from Europe. No. The sanctions are worth something, they are worth something to the Russians. Kerry can't get Crimea back with the sanctions. What can he get?
