You give a kaleidoscope a 1/8th turn and the whole picture changes. Those shards of glass are rearranged in a more sensible way by this article's authors, Molly McKew and Gregory A. Maniatis, former advisers to the president and national security adviser of Georgia during Russia's war on Georgia in 2008. The full article is in the Washington Post. It's not a reconstituted USSR that is Putin's aim, it's a "Greater Russia," based on language and religion. Not too far off Churchill's pitch of an alliance among "the English-speaking peoples" or it's contemporary incarnation, the "Five Eyes" intelligence grouping. This explains Putin's intransigence on Crimea. It--and others--are low hanging fruit in his grand scheme. It is a brilliant idea by Putin, you have to give him that.
Vladimir Putin’s speech Tuesday — disavowing Russia’s Soviet past, glorifying its Orthodox roots, decrying the unjust price paid by Russians when the Soviet Union collapsed and condemning the West’s hypocrisy — upended the foundations of the post-Cold War narrative.
The widespread idea that Crimea could be ceded without cascading consequences arose from the erroneous belief that Putin is reconstituting the Soviet Union. The Soviet past was never his frame of reference. Putin’s expeditionary wars are fueled byRussian exceptionalism: a vision for a renewed union based on a common Russo-Orthodox destiny. In other words, Putin’s ambitions range beyond the boundaries of the former U.S.S.R. and into Europe.
In the long sweep of Russian history, the rise and fall of communism in the 20th century and the ensuing 20 years of turmoil are an anomaly for Putin. The preceding millennium of Russo-Orthodox expansion is the norm. His strategic vision is not bound by democratic election cycles; it is measured in centuries and glory. The Western belief that a decline in Russia’s stock market would be a reason for him to pull back, for instance, is the sort of short-term thinking that has crippled our ability to guess his next moves.
By dubbing Russians the world’s largest “divided people” and noting that many live in appalling conditions in post-Soviet states, Putin on Tuesday belied his platitudes that he has no further plans for expansion.
Putin has employed three tools to realize his expansionist vision: the annexation of vulnerable territory, the launch of theEurasian Union and the revitalization of the Orthodox Church.
...
Annexation is the most limited of these but a critical propaganda tool. Each time Russia changes a border by force, it triggers a crisis among the transatlantic partners. Putin’s invasion of Georgia tested Western resolve in 2008. When Russia paid no price for that aggression, Putin’s belief that the West, Europe and NATO were vulnerable and in decline was reinforced.
Since then, Putin increasingly has referred to Russia as distinct from the West. He promotes an “orthodox morality” that rejects Western notions of tolerance and inclusive societies — seen domestically in the imprisonment of Pussy Riot, new “anti-propaganda” laws targeting gays and a crackdown on any media deviating from the Kremlin line.
...
Grabbing Crimea has more than doubled Putin’s domestic support and sentRussian markets soaring. The price of dissuading him from this interventionist expansionism just rose dramatically.
The Eurasian Union, set to launch in 2015, will primarily help Moscow reassemble Russian-speaking nations that have struggled for definition since 1991.
...
The message is that the “moral community” of orthodoxy is strong and that it doesn’t come with the hard membership criteria many Orthodox nations have struggled to meet. The closed, comfortable worldview — It’s okay to be what you are — was founded on geographic isolationism but is now
Vladimir Putin’s speech Tuesday — disavowing Russia’s Soviet past, glorifying its Orthodox roots, decrying the unjust price paid by Russians when the Soviet Union collapsed and condemning the West’s hypocrisy — upended the foundations of the post-Cold War narrative.
The widespread idea that Crimea could be ceded without cascading consequences arose from the erroneous belief that Putin is reconstituting the Soviet Union. The Soviet past was never his frame of reference. Putin’s expeditionary wars are fueled byRussian exceptionalism: a vision for a renewed union based on a common Russo-Orthodox destiny. In other words, Putin’s ambitions range beyond the boundaries of the former U.S.S.R. and into Europe.
In the long sweep of Russian history, the rise and fall of communism in the 20th century and the ensuing 20 years of turmoil are an anomaly for Putin. The preceding millennium of Russo-Orthodox expansion is the norm. His strategic vision is not bound by democratic election cycles; it is measured in centuries and glory. The Western belief that a decline in Russia’s stock market would be a reason for him to pull back, for instance, is the sort of short-term thinking that has crippled our ability to guess his next moves.
By dubbing Russians the world’s largest “divided people” and noting that many live in appalling conditions in post-Soviet states, Putin on Tuesday belied his platitudes that he has no further plans for expansion.
Putin has employed three tools to realize his expansionist vision: the annexation of vulnerable territory, the launch of theEurasian Union and the revitalization of the Orthodox Church.
...
Annexation is the most limited of these but a critical propaganda tool. Each time Russia changes a border by force, it triggers a crisis among the transatlantic partners. Putin’s invasion of Georgia tested Western resolve in 2008. When Russia paid no price for that aggression, Putin’s belief that the West, Europe and NATO were vulnerable and in decline was reinforced.
Since then, Putin increasingly has referred to Russia as distinct from the West. He promotes an “orthodox morality” that rejects Western notions of tolerance and inclusive societies — seen domestically in the imprisonment of Pussy Riot, new “anti-propaganda” laws targeting gays and a crackdown on any media deviating from the Kremlin line.
...
Grabbing Crimea has more than doubled Putin’s domestic support and sentRussian markets soaring. The price of dissuading him from this interventionist expansionism just rose dramatically.
The Eurasian Union, set to launch in 2015, will primarily help Moscow reassemble Russian-speaking nations that have struggled for definition since 1991.
...
The message is that the “moral community” of orthodoxy is strong and that it doesn’t come with the hard membership criteria many Orthodox nations have struggled to meet. The closed, comfortable worldview — It’s okay to be what you are — was founded on geographic isolationism but is now
driven by a rejection of the Europeanist ideology that is its greatest competitor. A meeting of the Orthodox Church’s Ecumenical Council in 2016, the first such meeting in 1,200 years, could be a key moment in these developments
...
Putin believes that ideologies inextricably linked to morality are in head-to-head competition, and he has proven adept at engineering scenarios to force a choice.
...
This threat hangs over eastern Ukraine and any nation with large Russian minorities. Putin’s assertion thatdiscriminating against the Russian language was grounds to invade Crimea could be applied to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. [Roger Cohen just shit himself.] South Ossetia, little more than a Russian military base, and Transnistria could stage referendums to join Russia. The heavily Russian north of Kazakhstan might be a target as well. There should be little doubt that an unrestrained Russia could chip away at the foundations of Europe.
If the expansion of this resurgent “Russophere” is not challenged, it will continue to erode the tolerant, inclusive, secure societies that are the basis of world peace and prosperity — and that we are morally right to defend.
...
Putin believes that ideologies inextricably linked to morality are in head-to-head competition, and he has proven adept at engineering scenarios to force a choice.
...
This threat hangs over eastern Ukraine and any nation with large Russian minorities. Putin’s assertion thatdiscriminating against the Russian language was grounds to invade Crimea could be applied to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. [Roger Cohen just shit himself.] South Ossetia, little more than a Russian military base, and Transnistria could stage referendums to join Russia. The heavily Russian north of Kazakhstan might be a target as well. There should be little doubt that an unrestrained Russia could chip away at the foundations of Europe.
If the expansion of this resurgent “Russophere” is not challenged, it will continue to erode the tolerant, inclusive, secure societies that are the basis of world peace and prosperity — and that we are morally right to defend.
