There are a couple of very informative articles today, only one of which I cite as I done forgot where the other one was at. For the very informative post the undersigned done writ on "Transnistria" and its very hot "Foreign Minister" the undersigned consulted "maps." Some American general, "Breedlove," opined on the weekend that Putin could be massing troops on the eastern and southern borders with Ukraine in order to make a "dash" for the Transistor entity and thence into Moldova. It would have to be a splashy dash the undersigned cartographer thought as the prizes of Transnistria and Moldova were separated from nearest Russia, the shiny new Russian territory of Crimea, by the Black Sea. And even then, Russian liberators would have to cross someones foreign territory, most likely sovereign Ukraine's at a relatively narrow patch proximate to Odessa. Which would violate Putin's stated intention not to (further) violate sovereign Ukraine. The article that I forgot mentioned this logistical difficulty which enhanced the confidence of the undersigned in reading maps, which confidence he was lacking theretofore.
Comes now an article in Foreign Policy,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine, the upshot of which is this-here: Putin t'ain't gonna make no splashy dash. If Putin does anything more than posture, which the article implies and the undersigned re-implies, he's going to do it where he has, like, the troops, on the southern and eastern borders with Ukraine. He will thus transverse the breadth of Ukraine, liberating Russian-speaking cul-de-sacs along the way and neutering Ukraine, not to mention, killing a vast number of Ukrainians. The FP article says that Putin has a military "window of opportunity" from roughly mid-April to mid-May to begin the Rape of Ukraine.
Why the Rape of Ukraine is plausible, nay probable, says FP, is that Russia does not recognize the current Ukraine government, which the undersigned knew already, duh, and that Sergei Lavrov, who is not hot, but who is the Foreign Minister of Russia, has said that Russian recognition is dependent on Ukraine adopting a new constitution that (1) must be approved by all regions of Ukraine, the undersigned infers this means that those Russian-speaking cul-de-sacs are big cul-de-sacs, making approval by all dicey. (2) must render Ukraine a "federative" state, which sounded okay to the undersigned as America is a federative state (Isn't it?), with the Federative Papers, yada-yada, but which the undersigned inferred is not the character of the Ukrainian state currently nor previous to the upset in Crimea. The undersigned guesses that maybe Ukraine was "centralized." Or something. (3) gives to those aforementioned regions autonomy to pursue their own foreign and economic policies!!!!!, which the undersigned recognizes is a horse of a different color from the American federative state at least prior to Marbury v Madison. And its progeny. (4) must recognize Russian as an official language. None of which the undersigned knew. The undersigned can see however that none of that shit is going to happen or happen over Ukraine's dead body. Which it might.
Thus, the FP article. And that other one.
Comes now an article in Foreign Policy,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine, the upshot of which is this-here: Putin t'ain't gonna make no splashy dash. If Putin does anything more than posture, which the article implies and the undersigned re-implies, he's going to do it where he has, like, the troops, on the southern and eastern borders with Ukraine. He will thus transverse the breadth of Ukraine, liberating Russian-speaking cul-de-sacs along the way and neutering Ukraine, not to mention, killing a vast number of Ukrainians. The FP article says that Putin has a military "window of opportunity" from roughly mid-April to mid-May to begin the Rape of Ukraine.
Why the Rape of Ukraine is plausible, nay probable, says FP, is that Russia does not recognize the current Ukraine government, which the undersigned knew already, duh, and that Sergei Lavrov, who is not hot, but who is the Foreign Minister of Russia, has said that Russian recognition is dependent on Ukraine adopting a new constitution that (1) must be approved by all regions of Ukraine, the undersigned infers this means that those Russian-speaking cul-de-sacs are big cul-de-sacs, making approval by all dicey. (2) must render Ukraine a "federative" state, which sounded okay to the undersigned as America is a federative state (Isn't it?), with the Federative Papers, yada-yada, but which the undersigned inferred is not the character of the Ukrainian state currently nor previous to the upset in Crimea. The undersigned guesses that maybe Ukraine was "centralized." Or something. (3) gives to those aforementioned regions autonomy to pursue their own foreign and economic policies!!!!!, which the undersigned recognizes is a horse of a different color from the American federative state at least prior to Marbury v Madison. And its progeny. (4) must recognize Russian as an official language. None of which the undersigned knew. The undersigned can see however that none of that shit is going to happen or happen over Ukraine's dead body. Which it might.
Thus, the FP article. And that other one.
