Thursday, February 12, 2015


Swine map, the writing didn't come out. Writing is crucial for moi at least, to understand a map. Okay, now then: AS I UNDERSTAND IT, the ceasefire agreement gives Russia part of eastern Ukraine. Follow the squiggly lines:

-First squiggly line: Solid yellow. See that yellow one? What's the writing say? "Ceasefire demarcation line." That's 50 miles inside Ukraine!

-Second squiggly line: Hashed Black. "Proposed zone for withdrawal of heavy weaponry." That's an interesting squiggly line. As I understand it most of the heavy weaponry is Russian, which is why Ukraine is getting its ass-ki kicked. So this squiggly line of interest goes much further into 'Kraine at some points and doesn't go as far at other points as the yellow demarcation line. So that means Russia is ceding potential effective control over a much larger chunk of 'Kraine. That's good! Except it also means Ukraine has to withdraw its heavy weaponry from a larger chunk of Ukraine. You want to know the really cool thing about that hashed black line? The really cool thing is, see how it loops around Mariupol at the bottom? It starts out to the right of the solid yellow ceasefire line then does a loopdy-loop around Mariupol and comes out on the left of the solid yellow ceasefire line, i.e. further into Ukraine. So Russia is allowed to have "heavy weaponry" deeper into Ukraine in case the ceasefire doesn't hold. Just in case! That black hashed line encircles the yellow ceasefire line. So if the ceasefire ceases Russia heavy weaponry completely surrounds Mariupol, Donetsk, Debaltseve, and Luhansk. Tres cool monsieur, mademoiselle, tres cool.

-The most important squiggly line is that solid black one on the right. You see that? Where it says RUSSIA to the right of that solid black line? Notice how none of those other lines go past that solid black line. All this demarcating and cease firing is being done on the Ukraine side of that solid black line. Notice how all those bomb blast graphics are on the Ukraine side of that solid black line. Interesting! I read one time that during the Cold War one American diplomat summed up every negotiating session with the Russians: The Russian position is everything we have is non-negotiable; everything you have is negotiable.

-Finally, red dotted line. I'm nervous here because there are no pointers with writing to that line. It's also hard to follow. AS I UNDERSTAND THE RED DOTTED LINE that red dotted line encompasses two areas of "effective rebel [i.e. Russian] control," one shaded gray from June, 2014, one shaded...yellow...ish for right now, February 12, 2015.

SO: Putting all these squiggly lines together...in our heads...it means 1. All of Russia is non-negotiable. 2. That part of Ukraine up to the black hashed line has been negotiated away to Russia where henceforth it will become non-negotiable. 3. That part of Ukraine between the black hashed and solid yellow lines is still negotiable but the two sides must negotiate only with sticks and stones not heavy weapons. 4. This is an agreement, not a treaty, not a legal ruling; it establishes no new solid black lines. It is an agreement to stop shooting. For how long? 5. If the ceasefire (solid yellow) doesn't hold, i.e. if Russia breaks it, as it didn't hold in September because Russia broke it, then all those lines EXCEPT THE SOLID BLACK ONE are erased, Russia will take however much more of Ukraine it wants and will have a "head start" with Mariupol, Donetsk, Debaltseve, and Luhansk surrounded.

So yeah, that's how moi understands that map. Have a nice day.