Sunday, March 29, 2015

No Iran Nukes Deal.

That is both a statement of fact, it didn't get done today, and a preference that it doesn't. This is just the "political" framework, the 2-3 page thing, not the deal-deal, they have until June on the deal-deal. Iran took one step back today. It had agreed previously to ship its existing enriched uranium to Russia. Today it said its enriched uranium isn't leaving Iran. The New York Times then said this:

"The disclosure also adds a new element to the growing debate over whether the proposed agreement would meet President Obama’s oft-stated assurance that the world would have at least a year’s warning if Iran raced for a bomb — what experts call “breakout time.”

That has been Obama's oft-stated position, to which I say: that is a pretty generous red line to throw before Iran. Remember when Obama gave that UN speech, that was the most forceful foreign policy speech I had ever heard him give. I'd a been scared if I was an Iranian listening to that. "Make no mistake, a nuclear Iran could not be contained." "Red line!" Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons, remember that? And that was after we and the Israelis had used stuxnet to rattle their accelerator or whatever its called, the thing that spins the centrifuges, and damaged some of their centrifuges. That was brilliant!

Anyway, Obama has gone from that to assuring us, the world, that with this deal we, the world, will have "at least a year" to re-stuxnet them or something before they get a bomb. That's a fer piece of walking back from his anger ledge Obama has done! It really is; now our bottom line for an agreement, you can't call it a red line, it's yellow-green, it's a chartreuse line, is a whole long way from Obama's UN speech.

Stuff happened, Obama says. Iran elected a moderate. Obama sent a hand-written letter to the Ayatollah. They swapped letters, I think, maybe they swapped bodily fluids I don't know but there was personal contact, maybe some warm personal contact, I doubt it but maybe but Obama saw the new moderate leader as significant, very significant and he immediately reached out. PAUSE: He reached out to IRAN. Maybe has a personal relationship there. With Iran. The guy doesn't have a personal relationship with Mitch McConnell, he reached out to establish one with IRAN. UNPAUSE. Are these 18 months he's had Kerry talking a sign that Obama's out-reach worked? Ooh.

The other thing that happened was that Obama got elected again. He's on the clock. Only two years left. F.p. accomplishments for his "legacy:" the climate deal with China? Sure hasn't established a personal relationship with Putin, hoo-doggie. Nor with Merkel, Rousseff. Nor with Harper. Of CANADA. Ouch. Maybe he's got a love thing going on with Raul Castro. That's about it.

Obama knows this. Legacy's a little LIGHT in f.p. Gotta have a legacy in f.p. Don't have a relationship with Netanyahu, can't get Israel-Palestine settled. What to do, what to do.

Obama is also fighting aganst a legacy. His father went back to Kenya all broke out with idealism and failed, stymied by the bureaucracy. He died frustrated and embittered. His father's son didn't want that to happen to him, thus pragmatism.

I hope this Iran deal doesn't get done, if necessary, I hope Iran sticks to its guns and torpedos it. A legacy, fighting for one or against your father's, are not good reasons to do this nuclear deal with IRAN.