Wednesday, March 25, 2015

"The FBI: Protecting the Homeland in the 21st Century."

That's the official title of their Close-Out Memo. It can be read here: http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/protecting-the-homeland-in-the-21st-century Glad to hear they're protecting the homeland in the 21st century.

There are instances where they did not provide "enhanced" protection however, instances where they "lagged" in providing that protection. One of them was the Boston Marathon bombing. Pageviewers will recall that in that lag the Rooskis actually provided advance warning. With that assistance from our Russian "partners" happily the FBI "gained information" but "lagged" in the ability to "analyze it." What says the FBI Close-Out Memo on the Brothers Tsarnaev?

CHAPTER II THE SUM OF FIVE CASES*



"The Review Commission concludes that FBI’s human intelligence (HUMINT), intelligence
analysis,
and information sharing practices performed unevenly in the five cases to varying degrees.
...

Key Points (Hereinafter "Key Points.)

"In none of the five cases did an FBI confidential human source (CHS) provide actionable
intelligence to help prevent or respond to a terrorist operation. In no case, despite the existence of a
functioning HUMINT program, did FBI human sources alert the FBI to the plotters.

(Frowny face.) The FBI needs to be intelligent, it lags in that area, we especially need the humans at the FBI to be intelligent.



"...domain intelligence needs to be enhanced..."

We are lagging in the whole enhancement field. We need the humans at the FBI to have enhanced intelligence where they already have intelligence. Where they don't have intelligence we need them to get it. 

"...intelligence analysts must be empowered to question special agents’ operational assumptions."

Okay, stop. We have to take first things first. You don't want to empower the un-intelligent. The ability to analyze is a function of intelligence. If you are not intelligent in the first place you can't analyze. So: (1) FBI humans must be intelligent. (Dos). Just to make sure let's required them to be enhanced in intelligence. (3) Then we can empower them.

"The case studies identify lapses in communication, coordination, and collaboration..." 

For unintelligent FBI humans I, personally, would recommend shortening this to the "3 C's." A prerequisite for the 3 C's is intelligence. Otherwise you're going to get "lapses."

"In Boston, although Tamerlan Tsarnvaev’s radicalization was known to some friends and
colleagues, including at his mosque, the FBI did not understand the extent of his extremist views
until after the bombings."

It all comes back to intelligence, doesn't it? The FBI just didn't get it because they didn't have it!

"Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) passed a lead to the FBI in March 2011 that Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his mother Zubeidat were followers of radical Islam and that Tamerlan intended “to travel to Russia to join unspecified ‘bandit underground groups’ in Dagestan and Chechnya.”
The FBI opened but then closed an assessment on Tamerlan concerning his potential threat to national security, concluding on June 24, 2011, that he had “no link or nexus” to terrorism."

We need to add a 4th "C." Communication+Coordination+Collaboration=Conclusion. The FBI's conclusion was a "lapse." It becomes our disagreeable duty to conclude that FBI humans are not as intelligent as FSB humans. The opening and closing thing, they need to keep the book opened. 

"Given the limited information on Tamerlan, the FBI did not nominate him for inclusion on the Terror Watchlist. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), however, independently nominated Tamerlan for inclusion on the Terror Watchlist in October2011––based on the same information lead from the Russians, which had been passed separately to the CIA the previous month."

The FBI should have "nominated" Tam. 

"In November 2012, Tamerlan interrupted a sermon discussing Islamic and American
holidays at the Islamic Society of Boston Cultural Center in Cambridge, but it does not appear
that this information was ever reported to the FBI. In January 2013, Tamerlan again became
angry following a sermon at the same mosque. This information does not appear to have
made its way to the FBI."

Self-evidently this intel "made its way" to the FBI since it is, like, included in "The FBI: Protecting the Homeland in the 21st Century." It just "made its way" to the FBI AFTER the bombing so I don't think it's fair to the humans of the FBI to say it never made its way. It was late. Maybe it got lost! Who knows! Now they want it before. Who cares, they got it, didn't they?

"In all five cases, when the FBI eventually became aware of the plotters, intelligence analysts
played a critical role in the investigations."

SEE! 

"Still, in three of the five case studies, it was a tip from outside the FBI that triggered the investigation."

Before-after, inside-outside: picky, picky, picky.

"We do not intend to second guess the decision-making of dedicated special agents and intelligence analysts ex post facto."
 
Oh yeah, you say that NOW, after you've thrown the "Special Agents" under the Humvee.
 
"The special agent assigned to investigate the Tsarnaevs did not consult any North Caucasus
or counterterrorism subject-matter experts to understand the broader context and implications of
the information provided by the FSB..."

Maybe the Special Agent wasn't caucasian, did you ever think of that? Maybe he didn't understand the caucasian language!

"A more thorough review of Tamerlan’s activities by an intelligence analyst with the
requisite subject matter expertise on terrorism and radicalization, working in collaboration with
the special agent during the interview process, database searches, and subsequent evaluation of
the information, may have led to a different interpretation of the significance of the FSB lead."

"May," not "would," MAY. There's no telling. The Russians just have more intelligence than the FBI does!

"The Inspector General’s report on the Boston Marathon bombing noted that the special agents
did not ask questions that were expected by their counterterrorism supervisor
regarding Tamerlan’s lifestyle and travel plans."

Okay, look: He may have been "special" but he was not "enhanced," he was not "empowered" with "intelligence." Maybe he was a special-ed Special Agent!

"Moreover, the special agent did not contact the local Cambridge Police Department or complete a comprehensive search of all of baseline databases required in FBI’s Baseline Collection Plan."

I bet this guy didn't get a cost-of-living raise. 

"The Boston case demonstrates that the path to radicalization can be easily obscured from law enforcement." 

It's not fair to obscure things from the special-ed.

Arright, enough. I stopped at page 49. This is a crappy Close-Out Memo. 

Now, from the Guardian today is this headline:

Boston Marathon bomb trial: FBI agent mistakes Grozny for Mecca in Twitter photo.

(Frowny face.)

Sparks flew in a federal courtroom in Boston on Tuesday in the trial of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev – the younger and only survivor of two brothers accused of perpetrating the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing – as the testimony of an FBI agent and witness for the prosecution collapsed under cross-examination by the defence.


Tsarnaev’s defence attorney Miriam Conrad surgically deconstructed testimony given late on Monday by an FBI agent that looked at Tsarnaev’s Twitter accounts – and embarrassed the FBI by showing them to have misidentified a picture of a mosque in Grozny, Chechnya, as the Muslim holy site of Mecca.
...
You said the picture [that forms the background of the second account] was a picture of Mecca,” said Conrad, towards the end of a lengthy and tense cross-examination.

“Yes, to the best of my knowledge,” answered Kimball.

“Did you bother to look at a picture of Mecca?” Conrad shot back.

No.”

“Would it surprise you to learn that it is a picture of Grozny?”

The picture on the account is not of Mecca – the FBI had misidentified it. It is in fact a picture of the Akhmad Kadyrov Mosque in Grozny.
 
The exposure of that mistake was just part of a long morning of embarrassment for the FBI, as Conrad poked gaping holes in their investigation into Tsarnaev’s online persona.

Kimball was forced to admit that he did not know that several of the tweets the prosecution had highlighted yesterday – to damning effect – as pointing towards Tsarnaev’s radicalisation and violence were actually lyrics from pop songs.

This included perhaps the most damning tweet of all those shown by the prosecution, which read, in Cyrillic: “I shall die young.”
...
Other posts shown by Kimball yesterday turned out to be jokes from the Comedy Central television show Tosh.o, or sketch comedy duo Key and Peele.
...
[Swine Defense attorney] also took Kimball to task for his lack of understanding of much of the slang Tsarnaev used in his tweets.

“Do you know what ‘mad cooked’ means?” Kimball fidgeted, and tried to guess. “Crazy?”

“It means high,” said Conrad. “Do you know who Key and Peele are?

“No.”

Key and Peele are the lead performers of a Comedy Central sketch show.

The only slang Kimball did manage to successfully identify was “LOL” for “laugh out loud”.

Lol.

*"Najibullah Zazi and the New York City subway plot, David Headley and the Mumbai attack and Denmark plot, Major Nidal Hasan and the Fort Hood shooting, Faisal Shahzad and the Times Square attack, and Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and the Boston Marathon bombing."