Folks, I've changed my mind on this. I want the U.S. to pull out of the 5+1 talks with Iran.
Fundamentally, I do not trust President Obama to make a good deal. Specifically, I read today that he has given up on the Holy Grail of American diplomacy, bringing peace to the Middle East, meaning a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and so, for his "legacy," he wants this deal with Iran. That alone is enough to make me suspicious.
Then, it's not just Netanyahu the Nut who opposes it, France, Saudi Arabia and a third country (Britain?) have deep concerns. My impression from reading, it may not be accurate, is that the other countries are reluctant to openly break with the U.S. given how much it means to Obama and how much time Kerry has spent negotiating it.
Next, the length of time this has taken. Impression: An unemotionally involved U.S. would have said fugettabout it some time ago.
Next, I read that the Iranians bargaining is characterized by one step forward, two steps back, one forward, always arriving at the same point, giving the appearance of negotiating but not really budging.
Next, the agreement, our "We got everything!" moment is a 10-year delay in Iran getting the bomb, not a red line that Iran will never get a bomb. That's small beer to a red line and to me is too little a "We got everything!"
Next, an "agreement" is looking less likely before the March 31 deadline, which was an extension of an extension and the Americans, desperate to salvage something are now pinning their hopes on a "political framework," somehow separating the political from...something else, the actual agreement I guess, and the Iranians are concerned that if they agree to a political framework, the scaffolding will constrain them from negotiating future changes, "You already agreed to the framework!" we could say and hem them in.
Next, the Iranians don't want spot inspections by the IAEA and I don't like the sound of that.
Next, they want all sanctions lifted immediately once they agree to anything, we want a gradual relaxation of sanctions conditioned on progress.
Finally, I don't trust the Iranians.
So, I am ready to rule: I agree with the Republicans. I don't like the looks of the smoke signals, I don't know what's in this agreement if it was to be reached, I don't trust Obama on this, I don't trust Iran and I want to pull the plug on the whole thing.
Have a good evening.
Fundamentally, I do not trust President Obama to make a good deal. Specifically, I read today that he has given up on the Holy Grail of American diplomacy, bringing peace to the Middle East, meaning a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and so, for his "legacy," he wants this deal with Iran. That alone is enough to make me suspicious.
Then, it's not just Netanyahu the Nut who opposes it, France, Saudi Arabia and a third country (Britain?) have deep concerns. My impression from reading, it may not be accurate, is that the other countries are reluctant to openly break with the U.S. given how much it means to Obama and how much time Kerry has spent negotiating it.
Next, the length of time this has taken. Impression: An unemotionally involved U.S. would have said fugettabout it some time ago.
Next, I read that the Iranians bargaining is characterized by one step forward, two steps back, one forward, always arriving at the same point, giving the appearance of negotiating but not really budging.
Next, the agreement, our "We got everything!" moment is a 10-year delay in Iran getting the bomb, not a red line that Iran will never get a bomb. That's small beer to a red line and to me is too little a "We got everything!"
Next, an "agreement" is looking less likely before the March 31 deadline, which was an extension of an extension and the Americans, desperate to salvage something are now pinning their hopes on a "political framework," somehow separating the political from...something else, the actual agreement I guess, and the Iranians are concerned that if they agree to a political framework, the scaffolding will constrain them from negotiating future changes, "You already agreed to the framework!" we could say and hem them in.
Next, the Iranians don't want spot inspections by the IAEA and I don't like the sound of that.
Next, they want all sanctions lifted immediately once they agree to anything, we want a gradual relaxation of sanctions conditioned on progress.
Finally, I don't trust the Iranians.
So, I am ready to rule: I agree with the Republicans. I don't like the looks of the smoke signals, I don't know what's in this agreement if it was to be reached, I don't trust Obama on this, I don't trust Iran and I want to pull the plug on the whole thing.
Have a good evening.
