Saturday, June 11, 2016

"Too much hero-ball from James and Irving down the stretch..."-Chris Haynes, cleveland.com

Second time I've read that sentiment this morning. 

Really?

Isn't that the point of having a Big Two (Love was brought off the bench)? Last year Cleveland had a Big One, both Irving and Love were injured. LeBron James had to play hero-ball alone, he had one of the most dominant performances in Finals history and they won two games. Kyrie Irving, statistically anyway, has had incandescent performances the last two games. 

Let's see if they did. I've already telegraphed that having James and Irving play "hero-ball" sounds like sound strategy to me, but did they? Let's compare Cleveland's Big Two and Golden State's Big Two last night.

James: 46 minutes, 25 points, 11/21, 13 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks, 7 turnovers. 
Irving: 43 minutes, 34 points, 14/28, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.

Curry: 40 minutes, 38 points, 11/25, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 0 blocks, 3 turnovers.
Thompson: 39 minutes, 29 points, 7/14, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 turnover.

The numbers that immediately stand out for me are minutes played, James played all but two minutes of the entire game, Cleveland's Big Two played ten more minutes than GS's; James' turnovers, 7 is a lot; Cleveland's Big Two shot better than GS's; (Cleveland's entire team shot a higher percentage than GS, 47%-41%); James' assists: how the heck is it "hero-ball" when a guy has nine assists?; GS's BT outscored Cleveland's-and did so playing ten fewer minutes-they were more "efficient" is the Bay Area term for it, 

Now, BT's points as percent of team's: GS 58.3%;  Cleveland 60.8%.

No. A 2 1/2 percent difference is not Cleveland's BT playing "hero-ball" and GS's not.

But: since playing "hero-ball" would be my strategy and Cleveland lost it follows that my strategy would be to play more "hero-ball" to get the win and you cannot get more hero out of James by playing him two more minutes and very little more hero out of Irving playing him five more minutes. They ain't gonna shoot threes, If James cut his turnovers down, I don't know, let's say to three, four more possessions, each possession converted resulting in 2.55 points (97/38), converting at the team rate of 46.9%,=ten more Cleveland points, that would have made the final score 108-107. Cut James' t.o.'s down one more, to two, and Cleveland would have won!...He averaged 3.3 t.o.'s per game this year so three was a reasonable estimate to get more "hero" out of James...but a little more hero, just one t.o. less than his season's average and voila!

HELD: more "hero-ball" needed from Cleveland.