Saturday, September 14, 2019

Saudi Drone Attacks

Ells and Gees, this is the most important public occurrence in the world in quite some time. The Wall Street Journal termed it "The Big One." Industry analysts estimate that crude prices may increase Sunday night when trading resumes to a level that will result in gas station prices rising ten cents to twenty-five cents per gallon. Drastic effect there on the economies of the world's leading industrial nations.

The two facilities hit, the Abqaiq oil processing complex and the Khurais oil field are of strategic importance to Saudi Arabia, that is they are really, really important. Especially Abqaiq which is the global crossing for the Saudi oil supply and hence the world's energy. Oil is refined into different grades at Abqaiq and and then shipped to consuming countries. The Journal says there have long been concerns about the vulnerability of Abqaiq.

The attack was strategic. It was timed before Aramco, the Saudi state oil firm, went ahead with its Initial Public Offering. Aramco is the most profitable firm in the world so the IPO was expected to be the most expensive in history. It was strategic also because these were attacks deep in Saudi territory. The importance of the strike on Khurais is Khurais' proximity to the world's largest oil field at Ghawar and to the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. If you can hit Abqaiq and Khurais you can hit Ghawar and Amerikan battleships. How Amerikan radar missed the incoming drones is a big question.

The most serious concern today has to do with alignment of political forces in the Middle East. Trump's Amerika 2.0 scrapped the U.S.-Iran agreement. Trump alleged Iran violated the JCPOA. Amerika 2.0 and Iran are in an increasingly warming Cold War. Trump has aligned himself with the Saudis and with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the Notorious MBS personally, and of course with the Israelis. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been jockeying for supremacy in the Muslim Middle East since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Israel considers Iran to be an existential threat. Trump's Foreign Minister Herman Goering Mike Pompeo has already blamed the strikes on Iran.
Looking at the geography, Iran is right across the Gulf from Saudi Arabia, Yemen is to the south, further away from Iran. Geographically, it seems more likely Iran but the coordinated sophistication of the attacks, their success, and the great strategic importance of the targets points strongly toward Iran.

There is a response to today's attacks that is coming. The most serious question is who responds, Amerika 2.0 or Saudi Arabia, or both, and against whom? If the response is that Iran is attacked proportionally to today's attack, that is strategically and deep in Iranian soil then the whole Mid-East could blow. Iran attacks Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Fifth Fleet and there we go.

This story is going to continue to be top of the first page until whatever happens happens and no matter what occurs tonight in the Amerikan toy department.