Monday, April 06, 2020

Trump Epidemic April 6, 10:04 p.m.

A few moments ago when I came back to the 'puter I actually held my breath--I thought I was going to read that Boris Johnson had died...

Anyway. Trump Death Week has indeed gotten off to a blazing start. 10,908 people have been killed by Trump. That's ~1,300 today! 19,598 have recovered; there are now >367,507 confirmed cases of people infected by Trump Virus. The mortality rate is up to 2.96%.  Remember when I started tracking this daily it was 1.2%? And we had something like 30,000 cases then. I didn't understand with that sample size why the mortality rate for the U.S. was so low compared to other countries. I did not give proper due to the relatively late start the virus got in the U.S. March 16 was the Great Leap in cases so we're about three weeks in. There's a gestation period, obviously. Boris Johnson was diagnosed March 27. He just got sicker and sicker and now today, ICU. Jesus Christ, I do hope he pulls through but my God, it looks bad for him. My sense (only that) is that those 19,598 who in the U.S. recovered? They didn't recover from goddamned intensive care. They didn't get that sick. Anyway, anyway. My sense is that Covid-19 is not like being pregnant where you either are or you are not and it lasts the same nine months for every woman; it is not like the generic seasonal flu where when you get it, just write off the week. It hits everybody the same and at the end of five days or so you'll start feeling better. This thing, you can get a little peepy thing, you can get a bigger peepy thing or you can get a King Kong peepy where you're not going to be one of those 19,598, you're going to be one of those 10,908. On top of the incubation period and the dose level you got you have to add in the number of daily new cases to get a sense of where this is going and, circling back now, where the mortality rate is going. Where it is going is far, far away from Dr Fauci’s 1% guesstimate, I know that! If I remember right...Une momento por favor, I'm going to check to see if I have a record of this....That was nine fucking momentos. Hardly worth it. I thought when we were at 1.2% that I remembered the world rate being ~4.1%. I went back as far as my impatience would take me, to March 21. On that date the U.S. mortality rate was 1.4% and I wrote that the world rate was 4.26%. And I wondered then wtf? Today the world mortality rate is 5.54% and we're at 2.96%. The world rate then was 3.4 times what ours was. Today the world rate is 1.8 times greater...I read one time that readership declines by one-third for every number in excess of three that you put in a book or article. Is that true? Anyway, my pee brain cannot comprehend how we get to 100,000 deaths from here. Maybe it’s somewhere in the numbers but is so far out that I can’t see it with my 20/400 eyes. Or maybe it’s not there to be seen.