This is another top-notch reporting job by the New York Times. The Times reporter concludes there are not enough voters who are too embarrassed to tell pollsters they will vote for Trump to make a difference.
1) "many [Trump supporters] are even more reluctant today than they were four years ago to declare themselves in his camp." Makes sense.
A Republican pollster who worked for Mitt Romney told the Times that in 2016 if the polling firm asked voters in phone calls (the gold standard way of polling) to press a button for their preference rather than state it verbally the percentage of Trump voters increased two-three points. Voila!
2) The undecideds. Are you kidding me, who can possibly be undecided in this race? As I have written many times, and as non-idiots have also written, people have made up their minds, for Trump or against Trump. Yet, in RCP's national average there are still 7.6% undecideds! Weirdly, at least to me, the percentage of undecided voters is less, 7 %, in RCP's six "top battleground" states than nationally. Anyway, the question remains, who the fuck are these undecided voters? If you are--well, not you, because you're reading this blog so you're intelligent and don't have a metal plate in your head--so if the Idiot down the street in your Village is a Trump supporter but too embarrassed to admit it to a pollster how are they going to hide their true preference? The alternatives are: they tell pollsters they are going to vote for Biden; they say they are going to vote for a third-party candidate; they say they are undecided. Now, which is the most likely really? I mean, come on. Of course they're going to say "undecided." The Republican theory is best explained by this North Carolina Republican state official:
“Here’s the thing I wonder: If you think about how divided we are as a country, how polarized the two sides are at the national level when it comes to the presidential race, how many people are truly undecided?” [House Speaker Tim] Moore believes that voters who say they are undecided today will decisively break for Mr. Trump and help him win the state.
According to RCP's polling average Trump leads North Carolina by 0.6% with 6.6% undecided. If they break for Trump 70-30 Trump would win North Carolina by 3.24%, less than Trump's 3.7% margin in 2016.
But wait. Might there not be some shy Republicans for Biden? What about Republicans that RVAT and Lincoln Project are specifically aiming at? Republicans like Nancy, from North Carolina.
Oh lord. "Yelled at, called names, lost friends." Nancy is not a Secret Republican Biden voter but Nancy is appealing to those who have less courage than she, those who are to afraid to say they're going to vote for the Democrat. Those Republicans might feel so intimidated that they would lie to the pollsters and say they're voting for Trump. The more brave would park themselves in the undecided column also rather than say out loud, "Biden." The Republican Party has always been intolerant to their own. The Republican Party is now fully-owned by the Trump Cult where loyalty is pledged with the "Heil Hitler!" salute and maintained by a hard core of armed Brownshirts; where to be called a "Cuck Conservative" is the gravest insult.
Often wrong, always certain, my sense is that Secret Biden Republicans outnumber Embarrassed Trump Supporters. I think Trump is shooting at the wrong target with voter suppression. Of course, he would never think of intimidating voters in suburban Charlotte where Nancy lives. He will have his Brownshirts in urban Charlotte. And he will miss Secret Republicans for Biden. A little more than half of me thinks that RVAT and Lincoln Project are going to swing this election to Biden by pealing away some Republicans.
1) "many [Trump supporters] are even more reluctant today than they were four years ago to declare themselves in his camp." Makes sense.
A Republican pollster who worked for Mitt Romney told the Times that in 2016 if the polling firm asked voters in phone calls (the gold standard way of polling) to press a button for their preference rather than state it verbally the percentage of Trump voters increased two-three points. Voila!
2) The undecideds. Are you kidding me, who can possibly be undecided in this race? As I have written many times, and as non-idiots have also written, people have made up their minds, for Trump or against Trump. Yet, in RCP's national average there are still 7.6% undecideds! Weirdly, at least to me, the percentage of undecided voters is less, 7 %, in RCP's six "top battleground" states than nationally. Anyway, the question remains, who the fuck are these undecided voters? If you are--well, not you, because you're reading this blog so you're intelligent and don't have a metal plate in your head--so if the Idiot down the street in your Village is a Trump supporter but too embarrassed to admit it to a pollster how are they going to hide their true preference? The alternatives are: they tell pollsters they are going to vote for Biden; they say they are going to vote for a third-party candidate; they say they are undecided. Now, which is the most likely really? I mean, come on. Of course they're going to say "undecided." The Republican theory is best explained by this North Carolina Republican state official:
“Here’s the thing I wonder: If you think about how divided we are as a country, how polarized the two sides are at the national level when it comes to the presidential race, how many people are truly undecided?” [House Speaker Tim] Moore believes that voters who say they are undecided today will decisively break for Mr. Trump and help him win the state.
According to RCP's polling average Trump leads North Carolina by 0.6% with 6.6% undecided. If they break for Trump 70-30 Trump would win North Carolina by 3.24%, less than Trump's 3.7% margin in 2016.
But wait. Might there not be some shy Republicans for Biden? What about Republicans that RVAT and Lincoln Project are specifically aiming at? Republicans like Nancy, from North Carolina.
Oh lord. "Yelled at, called names, lost friends." Nancy is not a Secret Republican Biden voter but Nancy is appealing to those who have less courage than she, those who are to afraid to say they're going to vote for the Democrat. Those Republicans might feel so intimidated that they would lie to the pollsters and say they're voting for Trump. The more brave would park themselves in the undecided column also rather than say out loud, "Biden." The Republican Party has always been intolerant to their own. The Republican Party is now fully-owned by the Trump Cult where loyalty is pledged with the "Heil Hitler!" salute and maintained by a hard core of armed Brownshirts; where to be called a "Cuck Conservative" is the gravest insult.
Often wrong, always certain, my sense is that Secret Biden Republicans outnumber Embarrassed Trump Supporters. I think Trump is shooting at the wrong target with voter suppression. Of course, he would never think of intimidating voters in suburban Charlotte where Nancy lives. He will have his Brownshirts in urban Charlotte. And he will miss Secret Republicans for Biden. A little more than half of me thinks that RVAT and Lincoln Project are going to swing this election to Biden by pealing away some Republicans.
