176,348 Cumulative total Killed by Trump reported to Johns Hopkins (post time).
985 Killed by Trump reported to Hopkins April 22 (post time).
+’s and -‘s the Cases 7-day average has been down all of August. This is fabulous news and the decline has come in two steep drops either side of a plateau. We have erased all of the gains all the way back to the beginning of July. Will the downward trajectory continue? If so, we are beating it but with schools at all levels reopening (some reclosing as soon as they reopened) it is still an open question.
A glance at the Deaths 7-day average conveys a far different picture. Deaths have plateaued. However as all experienced readers of these graphs know by now that is to be expected. Deaths lag Cases and the enormous July-August Cases bulge is being digested in recoveries and Deaths. On the other side of that Cases bulge however is the marked decline. That decline is about three weeks in making. There is just no way that Deaths are not going to fall once that more reasonable mouthful is digested.
My powers of prediction have for once been accurate. It is now midnight Aug 23 and Deaths August 22 were under 1,000–not by much to be sure! But they are under. Now we can expect in the next two days reporting artifact that will artificially depress the Deaths count dramatically. I predict a decline in reported Deaths Aug 23 to be a little over 500 and on Monday between 400 and 450. Then on Tuesday when the reporters get back to work and the aggregating sites like Hopkins and NYT begin publishing the new figures, the reported Count will rise dramatically. The 7-day average evens out those reporting artifacts. I am to a standard of probability optimistic now as to what the numbers both of Cases and of Deaths will be in the short-term, say the next two weeks.
