Final one of the night.
This is a Trump smackdown, more than 2-1 over the next candidate, very consistent with the polling. There is one note played on the Trumpet tonight, the battle for second place cannot be heard. New Hampshire is not a great predictor of the eventual nominee. However, I'd like someone to show me an instance of a candidate who won New Hampshire by 2-1 and did not win the nomination. Next stop is South Carolina where Trump is far ahead. He is sprinting where the others are jogging. And the others are jogging together in a 4-5 man potato sack race. Trump will be farther in the distance after South Carolina and about out of sight.
However, as far ahead as Trump was tonight he still won a paltry plurality of barely one-third of the GOP electorate. Sixty-six percent voted for someone else. Theoretically, in a two-person race, even in the GOP, Trump would be swamped by 2-1. Of course that theory will not be actualized in practice. Some candidates will drop out, Carson, perhaps Christie, and they may well endorse Trump, their supporters may become his supporters and Trump's margin both in real terms and proportionally, may increase. Not so Kasich, Rubio, Bush and their supporters. They seem much more likely to unite behind the anti-Trump survivor among them. What of Cruz? Where might his supporters go if he drops out. It is hard to see them going en masse for Kasich, Rubio or Bush. How high is Trump's ceiling? And if not at 50%, where?
On the Democratic side The Internationale rings loudly and the polls got the margin right here too, but in South Carolina Senator Sanders is not from a neighboring state, Black people are heavily represented among Democrats and, consequently, Hillary Clinton, is overwhelmingly favored. There is not the same danger here as in the GOP. But Hillary Clinton is not an adept campaigner and the email issue is not going away. There is a real could over her, and consequently over the Democrats as well.
Which means over Obama and his legacy. It would be safe with a second President Clinton and with a President Sanders, but the latter is so improbable. If Senator Sanders were the Democratic nominee however, against Donald Trump and President Trump emerged, Obama's legacy would be undone.
The Red vs the Black?
Sanders or a deeply, maybe fatally, flawed Clinton against Trump is Obama's nightmare and Michael Bloomberg's opening.
GOP, 35% vote counted.
Trump, 34% (WON)
Kasich, 15%
Cruz, 11.9%
Bush, 11.4%
Rubio, 10.%
Christie, 8%
...
Carson, 2%
Carolina Panthers, 0%
Dem, 37% vote counted.
Sanders, 58% (WON)
Clinton, 39%
This is a Trump smackdown, more than 2-1 over the next candidate, very consistent with the polling. There is one note played on the Trumpet tonight, the battle for second place cannot be heard. New Hampshire is not a great predictor of the eventual nominee. However, I'd like someone to show me an instance of a candidate who won New Hampshire by 2-1 and did not win the nomination. Next stop is South Carolina where Trump is far ahead. He is sprinting where the others are jogging. And the others are jogging together in a 4-5 man potato sack race. Trump will be farther in the distance after South Carolina and about out of sight.
However, as far ahead as Trump was tonight he still won a paltry plurality of barely one-third of the GOP electorate. Sixty-six percent voted for someone else. Theoretically, in a two-person race, even in the GOP, Trump would be swamped by 2-1. Of course that theory will not be actualized in practice. Some candidates will drop out, Carson, perhaps Christie, and they may well endorse Trump, their supporters may become his supporters and Trump's margin both in real terms and proportionally, may increase. Not so Kasich, Rubio, Bush and their supporters. They seem much more likely to unite behind the anti-Trump survivor among them. What of Cruz? Where might his supporters go if he drops out. It is hard to see them going en masse for Kasich, Rubio or Bush. How high is Trump's ceiling? And if not at 50%, where?
On the Democratic side The Internationale rings loudly and the polls got the margin right here too, but in South Carolina Senator Sanders is not from a neighboring state, Black people are heavily represented among Democrats and, consequently, Hillary Clinton, is overwhelmingly favored. There is not the same danger here as in the GOP. But Hillary Clinton is not an adept campaigner and the email issue is not going away. There is a real could over her, and consequently over the Democrats as well.
Which means over Obama and his legacy. It would be safe with a second President Clinton and with a President Sanders, but the latter is so improbable. If Senator Sanders were the Democratic nominee however, against Donald Trump and President Trump emerged, Obama's legacy would be undone.
The Red vs the Black?
Sanders or a deeply, maybe fatally, flawed Clinton against Trump is Obama's nightmare and Michael Bloomberg's opening.
GOP, 35% vote counted.
Trump, 34% (WON)
Kasich, 15%
Cruz, 11.9%
Bush, 11.4%
Rubio, 10.%
Christie, 8%
...
Carson, 2%
Carolina Panthers, 0%
Dem, 37% vote counted.
Sanders, 58% (WON)
Clinton, 39%
