Only 7.9% in South Carolina today. Trump won, got 32.5%, See how he seems to have a ceiling, Rubio second right now with 98% returns in but just by a hair over Cruz, 22.5%-22.3%.
First time I've checked all night, have lost some interest, some "obsession," with Trump, so I haven't read the experts yet to get their spin. Let's see, what will the expert commentary be? Trump a hair or two, as I recall, beneath his finally polling average, slightly less than in NH, no? My spin anyway is that this is reinforcing that Trump has both a high floor and a low ceiling. I think the 'Xperts will say same.
I think the 'Xperts will also say this is a pretty darn good showing by Rubio and by Cruz, particularly by Rubio, he definitely beat his polls and is beating Cruz to second place right now. What jumped out at me most when I saw those numbers was how robust the anti-Trump vote appears when you have two candidates in the 20's. What my eyes did anyway was see, not a 10-point Trump win, but a 12-point Trump loss.
There is a window. The window will definitely close by April 26 but how long it is open for another candidate to beat Trump depends on, resources, surely, and where Bush's support now goes..Well, duh, Bush's financial resources are going to Rubio, I have to think his supporters too, I mean they're both from Florida, and it depends I guess on whether either of these guys, Rubio or Cruz, has a support ceiling. I don't think we can say that with them with the same confidence we, or at least I, can say that with Trump. I would think Cruz would have not quite as much "upside" as Rubio, Cruz is just so intensely disliked, I think Rubio was definitely helped by Governor Nikki Haley's endorsement, would have been helped more if Lindsey Scott had endorsed him and not Jeb:(. Cruz can expect next to zero endorsements and, from here on, Rubio can expect a ton it seems to me.
Will increased endorsements be enough for Rubio? Honestly, I don't think that is going to be enough. Somebody has got to start beating Trump and they've got to start doing it while this window is open and with both Rubio and Cruz in the race and both, in SC, scoring in the low 20's...I mean, look, I don't think we can plausibly say Rubio has got the Momentum thing, right? We're not going to go with Big Mo in a 10-point loss in the third voting state. Rubio had a plausible "3-2-1" strategy in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that has turned into a clunky 3-5-2ish...what exactly? The possibilities are tantalizing, It's right THERE! but there was a possibility I could have been born Einstein, you know what I mean? Rubio has got to win, like, finish first, and he hasn't come close yet. It seems to this non-Einstein that Marco Rubio has got to beat Cruz to beat Trump. That is, Rubio has got to take some of Cruz' supporters, not just add Jeb's. Rubio has got to take from Cruz. Tough take.
Now let's see what the 'Xperts say.
First time I've checked all night, have lost some interest, some "obsession," with Trump, so I haven't read the experts yet to get their spin. Let's see, what will the expert commentary be? Trump a hair or two, as I recall, beneath his finally polling average, slightly less than in NH, no? My spin anyway is that this is reinforcing that Trump has both a high floor and a low ceiling. I think the 'Xperts will say same.
I think the 'Xperts will also say this is a pretty darn good showing by Rubio and by Cruz, particularly by Rubio, he definitely beat his polls and is beating Cruz to second place right now. What jumped out at me most when I saw those numbers was how robust the anti-Trump vote appears when you have two candidates in the 20's. What my eyes did anyway was see, not a 10-point Trump win, but a 12-point Trump loss.
There is a window. The window will definitely close by April 26 but how long it is open for another candidate to beat Trump depends on, resources, surely, and where Bush's support now goes..Well, duh, Bush's financial resources are going to Rubio, I have to think his supporters too, I mean they're both from Florida, and it depends I guess on whether either of these guys, Rubio or Cruz, has a support ceiling. I don't think we can say that with them with the same confidence we, or at least I, can say that with Trump. I would think Cruz would have not quite as much "upside" as Rubio, Cruz is just so intensely disliked, I think Rubio was definitely helped by Governor Nikki Haley's endorsement, would have been helped more if Lindsey Scott had endorsed him and not Jeb:(. Cruz can expect next to zero endorsements and, from here on, Rubio can expect a ton it seems to me.
Will increased endorsements be enough for Rubio? Honestly, I don't think that is going to be enough. Somebody has got to start beating Trump and they've got to start doing it while this window is open and with both Rubio and Cruz in the race and both, in SC, scoring in the low 20's...I mean, look, I don't think we can plausibly say Rubio has got the Momentum thing, right? We're not going to go with Big Mo in a 10-point loss in the third voting state. Rubio had a plausible "3-2-1" strategy in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that has turned into a clunky 3-5-2ish...what exactly? The possibilities are tantalizing, It's right THERE! but there was a possibility I could have been born Einstein, you know what I mean? Rubio has got to win, like, finish first, and he hasn't come close yet. It seems to this non-Einstein that Marco Rubio has got to beat Cruz to beat Trump. That is, Rubio has got to take some of Cruz' supporters, not just add Jeb's. Rubio has got to take from Cruz. Tough take.
Now let's see what the 'Xperts say.
