The U.S. is now involved in talks to resolve the problems of Russia's invasions of Ukraine. They're talking about a dimilitarized zone. Cool. Putin is going to take what he wants in Ukraine, which includes the East, is not going to give back what he's already taken, Crimea, and the only thing Ukraine, the U.S., France, Germany, anybody, everybody combined, can do about it is "cost" him for it.
You can cost Putin this with sanctions or by providing arms to Ukraine. However, 5,300 people have been killed since Russia started this a year ago, presumably that includes some Russian invaders. Arming Ukraine will increase Russian casualties as well as Ukrainean casualties. If you want to cost Putin in that manner, knock yourself out but arming Ukraine will not alter the balance of firepower, it will just cost Russia more to counter it, and it will not alter the outcome: Putin is going to take what Putin wants.
Given those stubborn facts, I wish Ukraine would follow the strategy the Russians followed in its 1812 war with Napoleon: Let Putin have it. The Russians let Napoleon have Moscow! Retreat, let Putin have Donetsk, now he is in charge of it, along with Crimea. Those are going to cost Putin something. Move the population out, go west, let him have Kiev if he wants, save lives, re-arm, cost Putin with the administration of areas emptied of Ukraineans, and, if you want, fight a guerrila war and cost Putin that way. The Russians defeated Napoleon that way, chased him all the way back to the gates of Paris.
You are going to lose symmetrical warfare when you're out-hardwared. That's when you go to asymetrical warfare. Ukraine and the West cannot prevent Putin from taking what he wants in Ukraine. They need to revognize stubborn facts to save lives and treasure.
You can cost Putin this with sanctions or by providing arms to Ukraine. However, 5,300 people have been killed since Russia started this a year ago, presumably that includes some Russian invaders. Arming Ukraine will increase Russian casualties as well as Ukrainean casualties. If you want to cost Putin in that manner, knock yourself out but arming Ukraine will not alter the balance of firepower, it will just cost Russia more to counter it, and it will not alter the outcome: Putin is going to take what Putin wants.
Given those stubborn facts, I wish Ukraine would follow the strategy the Russians followed in its 1812 war with Napoleon: Let Putin have it. The Russians let Napoleon have Moscow! Retreat, let Putin have Donetsk, now he is in charge of it, along with Crimea. Those are going to cost Putin something. Move the population out, go west, let him have Kiev if he wants, save lives, re-arm, cost Putin with the administration of areas emptied of Ukraineans, and, if you want, fight a guerrila war and cost Putin that way. The Russians defeated Napoleon that way, chased him all the way back to the gates of Paris.
You are going to lose symmetrical warfare when you're out-hardwared. That's when you go to asymetrical warfare. Ukraine and the West cannot prevent Putin from taking what he wants in Ukraine. They need to revognize stubborn facts to save lives and treasure.
