-It does not prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. The president himself acknowledged in Friedman I that after 10-15 years so much of the initial inspection regime will have expired that Iran's "break out time" would be reduced to zero.
-The president acknowledges what he took off the table in Lausanne and Vienna, that he unilaterally ruled out military action; he did then at the outset of the 2015 negotiations, he does now that the deal is signed. Yet he maintains that for violations the US military option is still there! That has no credibility coming from a man who took the military option off the table. He made this a diplomatic deal or---nothing. He is correct that if congress rejects the deal the US will be isolated. He set that process for US isolation in motion by making these a P5+1 deal negotiation instead of a bilateral US-Iran negotiation. The original position boxed the US in to the best deal that the US+Russia+China+Great Britain+France+Germany could agree on and get the Iranians to accept! If a zebra is a horse designed by a committee then this platypus is the product of the P5+1 attempts to design a shark.
-The president says the alternative to this deal is war. That is a red herring. It is just not true that if congress votes this deal down on September 17 that our missiles will fly on September 18. The proponents of keeping a military option on the table, which Obama took off the table would send the missiles flying if Iran was caught building toward a nuclear capability. Barack Obama was once one of those proponents such military action. He angrily warned in a speech before the United Nations that a nuclear Iran could not be contained. When the secret Fordo facility was discovered the US and Israel launched a cyber attack, that was stutnex, that destroyed many of the centrifuges there.
JCPOA makes the following changes to the previous sanctions regime:
1. The US rules out military action against Iran for violations, replacing military action with "snap back" US-only sanctions. The president is right that the rest of the P5+1 aren't going to snap back their sanctions. Russia began selling Iran sanction-prohibited material after "Parameters!" They are eager to reengage Iran in the arms sale business.
2. Future American presidents are foreclosed from military action against Iran until the expiration of many of the sanctions 10-15 years hence when Iran's break out time to a nuclear weapon will be "virtually zero," the president's words.
3. By cobbling together P5+1, the president has obliterated the previous sanctions regime which held military action perpetually over Iran's head and, by Obama's admission, contracted the Iranian economy by 20%.
4. Iran gets sanctions relief, immediate access to $50 billion dollars in sanctions-frozen assets worldwide in return. In return for what? In return for the US taking military action against Iran off the table. "If we agree not to bomb you, And we won't!, you can have $50 billion. And more to come! If you cheat the others besides us in the P5+1 agree not to snap back sanctions. But we will! And if you don't agree to this, a future American president, not me, I don't want to do it, but a POTUS 15 years from now may want to send the missiles your way. So. Whaddya say, deal?" They said deal.
That's the deal. PISS-POOR job Mr. President, PISS-POOR.
Good night.
-The president acknowledges what he took off the table in Lausanne and Vienna, that he unilaterally ruled out military action; he did then at the outset of the 2015 negotiations, he does now that the deal is signed. Yet he maintains that for violations the US military option is still there! That has no credibility coming from a man who took the military option off the table. He made this a diplomatic deal or---nothing. He is correct that if congress rejects the deal the US will be isolated. He set that process for US isolation in motion by making these a P5+1 deal negotiation instead of a bilateral US-Iran negotiation. The original position boxed the US in to the best deal that the US+Russia+China+Great Britain+France+Germany could agree on and get the Iranians to accept! If a zebra is a horse designed by a committee then this platypus is the product of the P5+1 attempts to design a shark.
-The president says the alternative to this deal is war. That is a red herring. It is just not true that if congress votes this deal down on September 17 that our missiles will fly on September 18. The proponents of keeping a military option on the table, which Obama took off the table would send the missiles flying if Iran was caught building toward a nuclear capability. Barack Obama was once one of those proponents such military action. He angrily warned in a speech before the United Nations that a nuclear Iran could not be contained. When the secret Fordo facility was discovered the US and Israel launched a cyber attack, that was stutnex, that destroyed many of the centrifuges there.
JCPOA makes the following changes to the previous sanctions regime:
1. The US rules out military action against Iran for violations, replacing military action with "snap back" US-only sanctions. The president is right that the rest of the P5+1 aren't going to snap back their sanctions. Russia began selling Iran sanction-prohibited material after "Parameters!" They are eager to reengage Iran in the arms sale business.
2. Future American presidents are foreclosed from military action against Iran until the expiration of many of the sanctions 10-15 years hence when Iran's break out time to a nuclear weapon will be "virtually zero," the president's words.
3. By cobbling together P5+1, the president has obliterated the previous sanctions regime which held military action perpetually over Iran's head and, by Obama's admission, contracted the Iranian economy by 20%.
4. Iran gets sanctions relief, immediate access to $50 billion dollars in sanctions-frozen assets worldwide in return. In return for what? In return for the US taking military action against Iran off the table. "If we agree not to bomb you, And we won't!, you can have $50 billion. And more to come! If you cheat the others besides us in the P5+1 agree not to snap back sanctions. But we will! And if you don't agree to this, a future American president, not me, I don't want to do it, but a POTUS 15 years from now may want to send the missiles your way. So. Whaddya say, deal?" They said deal.
That's the deal. PISS-POOR job Mr. President, PISS-POOR.
Good night.
