The most recent four polls have Cruz' lead diminishing from 10 to 6 to five and today, an ARG poll, to -10! In RCP's average Cruz still leads by 4.1 but that is down. The trend is clear: Cruz is falling, Trump is rising.
538's prediction of a Cruz win in Wisconsin in its "polls-plus" modeling is still at 90% but that too is down. In 538's polls only Cruz' odds are down also, to 83%. Polls-plus predicts a 42%-34% Cruz win; its polls only a 40%-36% Cruz win.
All but the ARG poll predict a Cruz win but with decreased, although still impressive, probability and with shrinking margins.
Cruz is falling, Trump is coming.
538's prediction of a Cruz win in Wisconsin in its "polls-plus" modeling is still at 90% but that too is down. In 538's polls only Cruz' odds are down also, to 83%. Polls-plus predicts a 42%-34% Cruz win; its polls only a 40%-36% Cruz win.
All but the ARG poll predict a Cruz win but with decreased, although still impressive, probability and with shrinking margins.
Cruz is falling, Trump is coming.
