Earlier this guy, credible, tweeted that the shift West was the worst possible news for "south Florida." Didn't understand. I take it because a hurricane's strongest winds come from the northeast. So the shift West implicates both coasts of Florida and South Florida, commonly understood to refer to Southeast Florida from the Keys to Palm Beach would get the stronger northeast winds ('canes move counter-clockwise). But...Irma's hurricane force winds, meaning 74+ mph, extend out "only"sixty miles.
Since that is true and the distance "as the crow flies" between Miami and Marathon (which is where the European model forecasts Florida landfall) is...89 miles, Miami would not get even the minimal, 74+ mph, hurricane winds.
Ergo, the shift West can NOT be the worst possible scenario for South Florida from Miami north. Which is practically all of South Florida. Now, that guy, not credible.
Been saying small deviation (20-50 miles) important for awful impacts.
Since that is true and the distance "as the crow flies" between Miami and Marathon (which is where the European model forecasts Florida landfall) is...89 miles, Miami would not get even the minimal, 74+ mph, hurricane winds.
Ergo, the shift West can NOT be the worst possible scenario for South Florida from Miami north. Which is practically all of South Florida. Now, that guy, not credible.
