Governors such as Andrew Cuomo are all kercited that the "doubling rate" is taking more time. What might that be? The doubling rate is the number of days its takes for the number of Trump Virus cases to double over time. Taking two days to double is bad; taking four days to double is "progress." I totally get the statistical concept. and the longer it takes to double the number of cases the better.
But, and I repeat, take the interpretation of this blingy new thing from the experts, not idiots like me. I am nonetheless wary that some statistical stardust is being thrown in our eyes. Take an example from sports. Pitt leads North Carolina 14-7 at the half. They have doubled the Apple Chills. Now if Pitt wins the game 35-19 that would be considered a goo' beatin'. But it would not have doubled the "Tall Heels." By this example Andrew Cuomo would be touting that North Carolina's "doubling rate" had not been sustained by Pitt in the second half. In that take, Andrew Cuomo would be a MO-RON. Pitt crushed them in the second half 21-12 on top of doubling them 14-7 in the first half. Mack Brown has more sense. "They took it to us from start to finish and pulled away in the second half." Any half-witted coach would be similarly humbled at that final score. Andrew Cuomo though would be jumping up and down grabbing his genitals at Pitt's failure to maintain and finish with a "doubling rate."
The doubling rate mantra is, by my lights, a horribly misleading statistic. As the total numbers in anything, e.g. sports, epidemics, stock markets, get larger, the doubling rate is increasingly difficult to achieve and therefore increasingly meaningless. However long it took the stock marked to go from 11,000 to 22,00 the time interval to double again to 44,000 is drained of meaning. If the health statisticians say, No, no! That is an Idiot Blogger writing there. The doubling rate interval is the key statistic--you believe them and ignore me. Which you are doing anyway. So call me an Idiot outlier but I am getting increasingly frustrated and skeptical with this fixation on the "doubling rate" when we just set a new God DAMN record for new Trump Virus cases, meaningfully exceeding the administration's shiny model's predictions on today's corpse count, when that model was so wrong in predicting only ONE day ahead that it had to move Peak Death Day to tomorrow from today.
Put less verbosely and bottom lined, I want to see:
1) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN TOTAL NEW DAILY CASES,
2) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN IN TOTAL DEATHS,
3) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN THE MORTALITY RATE.
Before that happens you can take your new blingy statistical concepts like the doubling rate and wipe your ass with them.
But, and I repeat, take the interpretation of this blingy new thing from the experts, not idiots like me. I am nonetheless wary that some statistical stardust is being thrown in our eyes. Take an example from sports. Pitt leads North Carolina 14-7 at the half. They have doubled the Apple Chills. Now if Pitt wins the game 35-19 that would be considered a goo' beatin'. But it would not have doubled the "Tall Heels." By this example Andrew Cuomo would be touting that North Carolina's "doubling rate" had not been sustained by Pitt in the second half. In that take, Andrew Cuomo would be a MO-RON. Pitt crushed them in the second half 21-12 on top of doubling them 14-7 in the first half. Mack Brown has more sense. "They took it to us from start to finish and pulled away in the second half." Any half-witted coach would be similarly humbled at that final score. Andrew Cuomo though would be jumping up and down grabbing his genitals at Pitt's failure to maintain and finish with a "doubling rate."
The doubling rate mantra is, by my lights, a horribly misleading statistic. As the total numbers in anything, e.g. sports, epidemics, stock markets, get larger, the doubling rate is increasingly difficult to achieve and therefore increasingly meaningless. However long it took the stock marked to go from 11,000 to 22,00 the time interval to double again to 44,000 is drained of meaning. If the health statisticians say, No, no! That is an Idiot Blogger writing there. The doubling rate interval is the key statistic--you believe them and ignore me. Which you are doing anyway. So call me an Idiot outlier but I am getting increasingly frustrated and skeptical with this fixation on the "doubling rate" when we just set a new God DAMN record for new Trump Virus cases, meaningfully exceeding the administration's shiny model's predictions on today's corpse count, when that model was so wrong in predicting only ONE day ahead that it had to move Peak Death Day to tomorrow from today.
Put less verbosely and bottom lined, I want to see:
1) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN TOTAL NEW DAILY CASES,
2) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN IN TOTAL DEATHS,
3) A SUSTAINED DECLINE IN THE MORTALITY RATE.
Before that happens you can take your new blingy statistical concepts like the doubling rate and wipe your ass with them.
