Wednesday, June 10, 2020

The Trump Effect

As most of you probably know, a couple of days ago CNN came out with a poll conducted by SSRS that showed Joe Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump. 2X first texted it to me and my immediate written reaction was,

Wait What?!

My second response:

I dunno about that one. 

The poll is just wrong. It is at best an outlier. I immediately dismissed it from my view of where the race stands and didn't even write about it.
Every pollster missed the Catastrophe but, if memory serves, CNN missed it worse than most. I remember, perhaps misremember, that CNN was repeatedly wrong, they always had HRC with a bigger lead than other polls did. I came to discount their polls in '16.

Today I got up from my desk to go do something and in the 10-15 minutes I was away I thought about that poll and I thought if I was the head of CNN, which I am not, I would have held up publication of that poll and called SSRS to demand an explanation. They would have been able to convince me since I'm not an expert and I would have published the poll under CNN's name. I then would have fired SSRS and gotten a new polling firm. That is how strongly I feel that poll is wrong.

Then, in a perfect example of the Streisand Effect, the Trump campaign fired off a cease-and-desist letter to CNN on that poll. As I have just written, I think that that poll is wrong, but there is no legal basis for retraction, none. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Period. Trump got everybody who had not seen the poll to see it; got everybody who had seen the poll and discounted it to go look at it again; got those who had written about it to write about it again, and got those who didn't even write about to write about it. This then becomes transmogrified into an instance of Trump's instincts failing him. Again.


That paradigm-shifting article in the New York Times, "How to Beat the Bully in the Bunker," said, just let Trump talk, get out of his way. That was so right. Trump would take his dick out of some immensely hot chick's vagina at the moment of jizzification and shoot all over his own face. And today his face looks like a glazed donut. Again. The Trump Effect.