Joe Biden is flying in rare air in the national polls. His lead in RCP's average is up to a fairly jaw-dropping 8.8%. Let me say, as my betters have, that such a lead, if the election were held in the next week, is insurmountable by anything that the Trump campaign or that Vladimir Putin can do.
In the swing states Biden's average lead in Florida is up to a fairly astounding 6.2%. If Biden wins Florida it's lights out for Trump. In Pennsylvania Biden's lead has increased to 5.6%; in Wisconsin it is up to 5.4%. If the state polls underestimate Trump's support even to the extent they did in 2016 those margins are out of underestimation's reach. Michigan is no longer even a swing state to RCP, Biden's lead is so large: a RCP average 10.3. 10.3, my goodness. Biden is +5 in Minnesota but on scanty polling; he is still +4%. Biden has fallen behind once again in North Carolina where he is -0.6% average. The gold standard Iowa Poll recently had Trump +1; RCP's average is Trump +1.5. A state that Trump carried in 2016 by 9.5% is now a toss-up. As is Ohio. Trump 2016 won Ohio by 8.1%; RCP's average now has Trump +0.5. In the South, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas are toss-ups to RCP.
The cash value of all of these current numbers is that Trump is being squeezed by Biden the boa constrictor. Right. Now. Trump has almost no room to maneuver; only one state, Tennessee, with double digit Electoral Votes is deep red; two others, Indiana and Missouri, are shaded the palest pink in his favor. We're four and three-quarters months out from election day.
Shit can easily happen and Biden could get splashed with all of it. Trump, of course, can still win. I am very worried that tomorrow and Sunday are going to see pitched, armed battles between provoked, insulted, enraged protesters and Trumpbags in Tulsa. This is all Trump’s fault and he poured gasoline on the embers warning the protesters that they will meet force. The Tulsa mayor has lifted the curfew and Trumpbags will be able to vent their spleens and empty their firearms all night long. The protesters will not be entirely without weaponry this time either. I fear riots. Not protests, riots. Many people on both sides injured. And deaths. This weekend could be one of those “inflection point” thingys and I wonder if it is not a moment Joe Biden might risk involving himself in. In 1968 Robert Kennedy broke the news to a black crowd that Martin Luther King, Jr had been assassinated in Memphis. Bobby talked the crowd off the ledge. Can Joe Biden, with his even greater personal losses, talk another angry crowd of black and brown and white out of violence? Dare he even try? Would they listen? They listened to Bobby and he had no way of knowing if they would.
I would go if I were Biden. I had intent to go myself, just as dumb ol’ Ben Harris, not to talk to them, to protest with them, but there were literally no flights from Miami to Tulsa, not through the airlines, not through the consolidators. If there is rioting and many are injured and many are dead on both sides, that will hurt Trump but also Biden, whether he went or not. If he goes, and I have not the slightest indication he intends to, it would be without political consideration; it would be to foresee catastrophe and attempt to forestall it; to try to diffuse an extremely volatile situation, to preemptively clean up yet another mess that he will have to clean up after he assumes the presidency; in short, if Biden goes, it would be to do good, regardless of political consequences. I would go but I could not recommend that Biden or anyone else go. This is too dangerous.
In the swing states Biden's average lead in Florida is up to a fairly astounding 6.2%. If Biden wins Florida it's lights out for Trump. In Pennsylvania Biden's lead has increased to 5.6%; in Wisconsin it is up to 5.4%. If the state polls underestimate Trump's support even to the extent they did in 2016 those margins are out of underestimation's reach. Michigan is no longer even a swing state to RCP, Biden's lead is so large: a RCP average 10.3. 10.3, my goodness. Biden is +5 in Minnesota but on scanty polling; he is still +4%. Biden has fallen behind once again in North Carolina where he is -0.6% average. The gold standard Iowa Poll recently had Trump +1; RCP's average is Trump +1.5. A state that Trump carried in 2016 by 9.5% is now a toss-up. As is Ohio. Trump 2016 won Ohio by 8.1%; RCP's average now has Trump +0.5. In the South, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas are toss-ups to RCP.
The cash value of all of these current numbers is that Trump is being squeezed by Biden the boa constrictor. Right. Now. Trump has almost no room to maneuver; only one state, Tennessee, with double digit Electoral Votes is deep red; two others, Indiana and Missouri, are shaded the palest pink in his favor. We're four and three-quarters months out from election day.
Shit can easily happen and Biden could get splashed with all of it. Trump, of course, can still win. I am very worried that tomorrow and Sunday are going to see pitched, armed battles between provoked, insulted, enraged protesters and Trumpbags in Tulsa. This is all Trump’s fault and he poured gasoline on the embers warning the protesters that they will meet force. The Tulsa mayor has lifted the curfew and Trumpbags will be able to vent their spleens and empty their firearms all night long. The protesters will not be entirely without weaponry this time either. I fear riots. Not protests, riots. Many people on both sides injured. And deaths. This weekend could be one of those “inflection point” thingys and I wonder if it is not a moment Joe Biden might risk involving himself in. In 1968 Robert Kennedy broke the news to a black crowd that Martin Luther King, Jr had been assassinated in Memphis. Bobby talked the crowd off the ledge. Can Joe Biden, with his even greater personal losses, talk another angry crowd of black and brown and white out of violence? Dare he even try? Would they listen? They listened to Bobby and he had no way of knowing if they would.
I would go if I were Biden. I had intent to go myself, just as dumb ol’ Ben Harris, not to talk to them, to protest with them, but there were literally no flights from Miami to Tulsa, not through the airlines, not through the consolidators. If there is rioting and many are injured and many are dead on both sides, that will hurt Trump but also Biden, whether he went or not. If he goes, and I have not the slightest indication he intends to, it would be without political consideration; it would be to foresee catastrophe and attempt to forestall it; to try to diffuse an extremely volatile situation, to preemptively clean up yet another mess that he will have to clean up after he assumes the presidency; in short, if Biden goes, it would be to do good, regardless of political consequences. I would go but I could not recommend that Biden or anyone else go. This is too dangerous.
