I was chastened to read this, an internal memo from the Lincoln Project, obtained by the Washington Post. I accept the chastening.

The Lincoln Project

State of the Race

If the polling we see at both the national and state-by-state levels is to be believed, with all the attend disclaimers, Donald Trump finds himself in an increasingly difficult position to win reelection this November. For all that he has fallen in the polls, Donald Trump is a dangerous candidate in the most powerful office in the land; our work, and the work of allied groups in this fight is far from over, and the months ahead will require the full measure from all of us. 2016 should remain a stark lesson; it’s not over until Joe Biden puts his hand on the Bible and swears the oath of office.
...
The Presidency

...Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by double digits in every national survey. Trump is well behind in most, if not all the so-called target states. Worse for him, in traditionally Republican states such as Iowa,Texas, and Georgia, Trump finds himself within the margin of error. Despite the Trump campaign reserving more than $100 million in television advertising for the Labor Day –Election Day stretch, his campaign is currently advertising in such places as Texas, Georgia, and the Panhandle of Florida. This is not the strategy of a campaign that sees itself in the ascendant, but one that knows that its base is softening, perhaps beyond repair. Trump’s decision to make this election about racial division should come as no surprise. Resentment and division were how he began his campaign five years ago, and they will be the reason his presidency ends next January 20th. However, this does not imply complacency. This race will tighten before November as voters turn their attention to the election before them.

[CHASTEN! I am very surprised. It was, until this, self-evident to me that voters had made up their minds about Trump. That the continuing, exploding Trump Epidemic was going to ensure that Trump, already politically dead by his namesake virus, was going to be deader as the Summer went on and the Fall began. LP doesn’t say why the race will tighten, but they do say it will tighten, no modifiers, will. Period there. Christ, that was exactly what Jennifer Dillon said. Cancel Fire Dillon.]

The press will write stories about “the Trump comeback,” Democrats will panic, and Republicans will crow about how they know the country best.

[Meat Cleaver Weaver did say that.]
...
As of this week, The Lincoln Project believes that:

●Michigan is now all but lost to Trump. This puts a severe dent in his Upper Midwest strategy;
●Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are leaning heavily toward Biden as independents and soft Republicans move away from the president;
●Arizona is increasingly likely to go to Biden in November as a large Latino population makes its voice heard. The Democrats also have a very strong US Senate candidate in Mark Kelly, who may convince voters to cross the line;
●North Carolina is critical to this November’s outcome. 2016’s margin of 150,000 votes will likely be even narrower this fall;
●Republican stalwarts like Ohio and Florida will require far more time, money, and attention from Trump and his campaign if they want to ensure victory in November

[So only Michigan is safely blue. Wisconsin and Pennsyl...well, you can read. North Carolina, if I understand them and their pecking order, is still likely(?) to stay Trump albeit after being more tightly contested. I told X-2 many times that NC would stay Red, but Joe has had a consistent 3% lead for some time now. I became guardedly optimistic we could turn it. Florida and Ohio are last in the pecking order, which is ominous to me. We have the burden; we have to claw back 3+ states and it will be more than 3+ without Florida. LP is giving us ONE state. They don’t even put Texas in their pecking order so Congressmen Vela and Castro we’re definitely gonna pass on the Texas tea.]
...
According to media reports, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has given Trump until Labor Day to get his message and his campaign turned around. After that, it is expected that he will allow his members to publicly break with the president. This will further accelerate the self-immolation of the Republican Party and further depress Trump’s numbers among GOP voters.

[Labor Day is September 7. That is the by-the-book start of the election season “when voters turn their attention." So, If McConnell is giving them only seven weeks, and the Trump $100 million ad buy is not until after that, when and how is this race to "tighten" before November 3? There is illogic here. When: I didn't know about McConnell's time frame. That is a strong sign that right now McConnell knows Trump has lost; that he will be given only until September 7 to rise from the dead. How: I mean how? The Trump Epidemic will ebb? It will not. Vaccine? No. The Epidemic is what killed Trump politically. Now, what? It's skyrocketing all across the Red states and voters in those states are going to want more?]