Through July 31 from the New York Times:
We flattened the curve! More than a bit tongue-in-cheek there as the seven-day average flattened on a plateau of about 65,000 and inched down yesterday to 63,806. In June when we really flattened it was just above 20,000, so it's now more than 3x that.
Deaths seven-day average, no flattening. Rising. Rising, rising, rising. Rising since July 5. This is to be expected. Deaths lag Cases. The seven-day average July 31, 1,203, is the highest since May 27. The Deaths seven-day average is going to continue to rise at least for the next few days.
It appears to me Trump Virus burns quickly through states. California and Florida led the way in Cases for awhile. Mississippi and Tennessee were not in the top ten. From memory, all of the states in the Cases Top Ten are new except North Dakota. We're not going to conclude the "first wave" nationally until it has burned through all of the states: up next, the Mid-West. It has been said that New York and California are done with the first wave. New York, certainly. California, the experts seem not of one mind on California: did the state open too quickly? Is it just so large a state that Trump Virus burns through north, central, and south at different rates? After the Mid-West though I think we will have finished with the "first wave" nationally and national Cases and Deaths, lagging, will fall dramatically. Will we get a "second wave" nationally? Dr. Fauci says it's not inevitable.
There's Florida, now #1 in Cases decreasing. Arizona, and at least, Texas were once among the top states with increases, now they are second and fourth in decreases. I am worried about the effect of this goddamned hurricane, Isaias, on the Atlantic Rim states virus Cases and Deaths counts. Florida is going to get drenched at least. Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, on up into Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey: all of the eastern edges of those states are going to get hit. People are not going to wear their goddamned masks. Power is going to go out, air conditioners are going to stop working. It is a stressor that inevitably is going to spread the virus, increase the severity of symptoms in those who have it but who have no or few symptoms, lead to hospitalizations of those who are dealing with it at home. And this is just the start of the mean hurricane season; it peaks in September.
Mississippi is getting hit hard, first in both new Cases and new Deaths. Arizona was once the leader in new Deaths. Florida is still there, at third. The Times does not publish a graph of states where Deaths are decreasing.
It appears to me Trump Virus burns quickly through states. California and Florida led the way in Cases for awhile. Mississippi and Tennessee were not in the top ten. From memory, all of the states in the Cases Top Ten are new except North Dakota. We're not going to conclude the "first wave" nationally until it has burned through all of the states: up next, the Mid-West. It has been said that New York and California are done with the first wave. New York, certainly. California, the experts seem not of one mind on California: did the state open too quickly? Is it just so large a state that Trump Virus burns through north, central, and south at different rates? After the Mid-West though I think we will have finished with the "first wave" nationally and national Cases and Deaths, lagging, will fall dramatically. Will we get a "second wave" nationally? Dr. Fauci says it's not inevitable.
There's Florida, now #1 in Cases decreasing. Arizona, and at least, Texas were once among the top states with increases, now they are second and fourth in decreases. I am worried about the effect of this goddamned hurricane, Isaias, on the Atlantic Rim states virus Cases and Deaths counts. Florida is going to get drenched at least. Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, on up into Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey: all of the eastern edges of those states are going to get hit. People are not going to wear their goddamned masks. Power is going to go out, air conditioners are going to stop working. It is a stressor that inevitably is going to spread the virus, increase the severity of symptoms in those who have it but who have no or few symptoms, lead to hospitalizations of those who are dealing with it at home. And this is just the start of the mean hurricane season; it peaks in September.
Mississippi is getting hit hard, first in both new Cases and new Deaths. Arizona was once the leader in new Deaths. Florida is still there, at third. The Times does not publish a graph of states where Deaths are decreasing.
