Thursday, October 22, 2020

46

I only watched a couple minutes more of the debate, at the end, less than one-third. The less than one-third was certainly more civil, more presidential, than the DebacleDebate where Trump so badly hurt himself. The micsilencer was a masterstroke by the Commission on Presidential Debates. I don't know what the voting public's take on tonight's is going to be but going into, Trump is in so deep a hole with so little time remaining, nothing can get him out. My new favorite, one-stop, number: 46. No one has ever won a two-person race for the White House with less than 46% of the vote. The numbers:

42.8: Trump's share of the vote per RCP's averaging of polls. 

50.7. Biden's share of the vote.

357: Electoral Votes RCP projects Biden to win when all votes are counted.

7.9: Biden's percent margin over Trump (up).

4.1: Biden's percent margin in RCP's top six battleground states (down).

66.3: Percent of bettors who are now putting their money on a Biden victory. That may be Biden's high.

3.3: I always have trouble phrasing this: Nationally, Biden is running 3.3% better against Trump than HRC did in 2016

0.3: Same awkward phraseology in the six top battlegrounds.

2: The number of battleground states (12 in all) that Trump leads in (Ohio and Texas).