Thursday, October 29, 2020

Joe Has Mo, Trump No Mo

356 EV's for Biden today in RCP's no-tossup map. (This changes daily now.) Last night RCP FLipped Florida back to Joe. Two days ago they they FLipped it from Joe to Trump. Same with Jawja. Oct. 26 Biden to Trump; today, Trump to Biden. The margins are just razor thin, FL 1.4%, GA 0.4. But Joe has the mo (although Trump is up to 43.7%: people are deciding, that's why; Joe is up too, to 51.1%). In the six tippy-top most important battlegrounds (PA, FL, GA, NC, AZ, MN) Biden's advantage increased from yesterday and he doesn't trail in any. The two are tied today in Arizona which greatly surprises me and Joe's margin decreased today in Minnesota. In the second six (IA, WI, OH, MI, TX, NV) Biden's margin went up in two and down in two and Trump's lead in Texas is down--JOE MUST GO! Joe rose to a tie in Ohio. Texas is the lone (star) state of the twelve that Trump leads in. 

Tonight's often wrong-always certain predictions (also subject to change): No faith in FL. Trump will win it. Joe will win PA (new poll today Joe +7), win Hairy Boner; I don't have an abiding conviction about Georgia; will lose North Carolina--so four of the top six; in the s.s. Joe will win Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and will lose Texas and Ohio. So in my prediction...Oh, I have to pick in Georgia, okay: Joe...So my Electoral College prediction tonight is Biden will win with 312 EV's to Trump's 226.