And tonight, as in the previous 7-14 days Donald Trump unmistakably has the momentum for another come-from-behind victory on Nov. 3. It is a shocking contradiction but it is true. Joe Biden peaked at 375 Electoral Votes a couple of weeks ago in RCP's no-toss-up map. Biden has steadily bled Electoral Votes since and tonight with RCP's award of Florida's cache to Trump, Biden's no-toss-up Electoral count stands at 311. RCP tonight has Trump at 227, just 43 shy of reelection. Biden is 41 over the minimum 270. RCP's last four changes, all since Oct. 16, have gone to Trump: Ohio (18) on the 16th, Georgia (16) on the 26th, and tonight Florida (29) and ME CD-2 (1).
Joe Biden's lead nationally is down but a still daunting 7.9%, but still a whopping 4.9% ahead of where Hillary Clinton was at the same stage of her campaign against Trump in 2016. Trump's share of the vote is up to 43.5%, still well short of the King Number 46%. Biden's composite lead in the top six battleground states is down to 3.5%, still 0.7% more than Clinton's lead in 2016. The betting percentages are down slightly for Biden from 66% to 64%.
Trump now leads in three of the six top battlegrounds and in four of the twelve total. Biden is down but still leading in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and up and leading in second-tier Iowa and Arizona and leading but down in Nevada. Trump just took the lead in Florida tonight and so is up.
Trump's frenetic pace and personal visits have, it seems, fueled his comeback and Biden's more leisurely pace and small, responsibly social-distanced crowds have provided a pro-Trump contrast.
I detect, with extremely inadequate equipment, a shift by the Biden campaign from Pennsylvania uber alles to a Plan B of Georgia and Iowa. Michael Bloomberg's $50 million in Florida on Biden's behalf has resulted in Trump leading in the state. Bloomberg is now concentrating on Texas, long eschewed by the Biden camp, and on Ohio. It seems that the Biden's have concluded that putting all of one's eggs in the uncertainly constructed basket of Pennsylvania, which voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932 and for Trump in 2016, is not going to hold.
These intuitions may be incorrect but where the candidates are and where they are spending is a perfect metric for the states they feel are important now, and as importantly, the states they feel are not.
Then, the United States Supreme Court ruling today added more uncertainty to the Pennsylvania vote count and has set off frenetic scrambling by Democrats in Wisconsin to round up their votes.
It is a disquieting night and the trend is clearly ominous.
