-The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the only general circulation newspaper in the city and by far the largest in all of Western Pennsylvania, today endorsed Trump, the first time since 1972 that they have endorsed a Republican.
-Trump's four-stop barnstorm yesterday, all in smaller communities, hurts Biden badly, I predict. Biden was not there, rather, in Michigan with President Obama. Biden is in Philadelphia today and tomorrow he and Kamala Harris will do their own barnstorm. I hope it includes some smaller places: Northumberland county, Luzerne county, Erie county, Centre County, maybe even Cambria county. Biden has got to show White middle- and working-class Pennsylvanians that he still "gets" them. Everytime Trump goes it's to the smaller, rural, heavily White communities. Biden and his campaign seem to think hitting Philadelphia, by far the largest SMSA and media market, covers PA. The rest of Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, does not even consider Philadelphia a "real"part of the commonwealth. We'd as soon sever the county and let New Jersey take it. "Pennsylvania," James Carville famously said, is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between."
-Related: Biden's schedule. Either the campaign has its own internal polls that show what I am predicting, a loss, or they are entirely mishandling Joe's schedule. Why was Joe in Michigan yesterday? Michigan?! Dudes and dudettes we got Michigan. Joe is not going to lose Michigan. Joe staked his campaign on PA! Why wasn't he there?! He was supposed to be in Iowa sometime too. I hope he canceled those plan! Iowa's gone. Forget it.
-Pennsylvania's crazy ballot system. Vote by mail! No! Vote in person. "Secret envelopes." The Lieutenant Governor, a Dem, said his "biggest concern" is the goddamn ballot. State law mandates that the votes case in person on election be all counted before you even start counting mail-in or absentee ballots.
-Enthusiasm gap. A guy I know, among others, in WaPo today said he was concerned about Pennsylvania because Republicans are voting in higher percentages than Democrats. Republicans spent a lot of time and effort on registering new R's in Florida and Pennsylvania.
-Herbert Hoover. Pennsylvania is the "Keystone State" but political bellweather it has never been. In 1932 it was one of six states (out of 48), and by far the largest, to stay the course with Herbert Hoover. The others: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware. Bet your election on Pennsylvania?? Don't do that.
-Biden still leads in PA but his lead, once robust, has shrunk by four in the last month of two.
My gut, born in, and resident of, Pennsylvania for my first twenty-six years, is grumbling a post-Halloween howl. In my gut's ear I can hear Pennsyltucky folks talking, and they're talking about the guy who spent his first four years ruining the country, Herb...Donald Trump.
