I was on the New York Times homepage just now looking for another story when I noticed the COVID 14-day changes:
-19% Cases
-29% Hospitalizations
-9% Deaths
I clicked on the COVID page 5 because all of those percentages seemed weirdly “suppressed,” Deaths particularly.
So I went to the Deaths 7-day average. 1,306 new Deaths reported on Feb. 2 but no average, although the graph line is clearly down a smidge. "Day with data anomaly” (?) Then why did you report 1,306 Deaths??? I don't know the answer to that but I then went tothe data anomaly page to see what was up:
Feb. 11: Ohio added many backlogged deaths from recent months.
Feb. 12: Ohio added many backlogged deaths from recent months.
Feb. 13: Ohio added many backlogged deaths from recent months.
March 2: Ohio removed deaths after changing its methodology, resulting in an artificially low daily count.
Dailies Feb. 2
1,924 Deaths. Up. Not artificially low or down, up. Over 6oo more than the Times’' "artificially low" number. Is the Johnnies number accurate? Don't know.
56,780 Cases. Down.
7-day daily averages
65,468 Cases. Down.
49,607 Hospitalizations. Down.
? Deaths. Down?
Can't do D-H rate without 7-day Deaths average.
Grade: Data anomaly.
'When will it end?': How a changing virus is reshaping scientists’ views on COVID-19
[Don’t like the sound of that, do you?😂]
Chris Murray, a University of Washington disease expert... on COVID-19...had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.
...
A new consensus is emerging among scientists, according to Reuters interviews with 18 specialists who closely track the pandemic or are working to curb its impact. Many described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% efficacy against COVID-19 had initially sparked hope that the virus could be largely contained, similar to the way measles has been.
But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that [COVID-19] will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come.
As a result, the scientists said, people could expect to continue to take measures such as routine mask-wearing and avoiding crowded places during COVID-19 surges, especially for people at high risk.
...
Even after vaccination, “I still would want to wear a mask if there was a variant out there,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, said in an interview. "All you need is one little flick of a variant (sparking) another surge, and there goes your prediction" about when life gets back to normal.
...
U.S. government predictions of a return to a more normal lifestyle have been repeatedly pushed back, most recently from late summer to Christmas, and then to March 2022. Israel issues “Green Pass” immunity documents to people who have recovered from COVID-19 or been vaccinated, allowing them back into hotels or theaters. The documents are only valid for six months because it’s not clear how long immunity will last.
[This is the key question for me: How long does the vaccination last? We’re used to “forever” as the answer, right? We got vaccinated against polio when we were kids. It was good for life, no expiration date. This thing, there is an expiration date; we don’t know what the expiration date is, Israel educatededly guesses six months, but there is one. The American public at least has not been sufficiently educated on the “temporary” nature of the COVID vaccines. The implication, which I have read no mention of, is that we are going to have to get periodic re-vaccinations, isn’t it?]
