Sunday, October 23, 2016

BITCH That Trump!

Hey Sex Offender, ja see the new poll?

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

"Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls."

This is the same poll, however, that was an outlier last Saturday, having Trump down only 4 when others taken during the exact same time period, Oct. 10-13 as I recall, had HRC with a double-digit lead. The undersigned therefore disregarded that poll. This one is an outlier the other way.

As I said last week, I trust 538's statistical modeling, which weighs the individual polls according to their "worth" and then aggregates them all, more than I do any single poll, or RCP's adding and dividing. In 538's latest forecast, which takes account of this ABC/WaPo poll, HRC leads by a weighted average of 6.8%. That erases about half of Trump's gains in 538's previous forecast.