Thursday, October 27, 2016

"The race probably IS tightening —"-Nate Silver, 538

The race probably is tightening— but perhaps not as much as the hype on the cable networks would imply. In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent.
Because of the high level of uncertainty in the race, we can’t say the door is closed on a narrow Trump victory.