Sunday, October 23, 2016

The Thunder Rolls

HRC is now approaching her high water mark of 89% in 538's next-to-useless win probability. She now stands at 86.2% for what that is worth. Her lead at the close of this day remains at 6.4% and that is not useless, that is the most reliable current forecast for November 8 by my lights.

And most significant of all, also by my lights, the individual states are blinking their colors toward being set, they are blinking uniformerly from what I remember, from darker shades of red to lighter shades, Texas and Montana have blinked from a darker to a lighter red and Alaska, Alaska is lighter still, a salmon shade. Utah, Indiana and Missouri look to be the paler shade exhibited by Texas and Montana while Georgia appears the color of Alaska's salmon.

Everything in the northeast except New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are a deep, almost royal, blue, and Pennsylvania has blinked bluer and is just the slightest shade off deep blue. In the mid-Atlantic Virginia is the deep blue of New England, as in the mid-west are Illinois and Michigan. Wisconsin and Minnesota are almost imperceptibly a tad lighter. North Carolina and Ohio have blinked bluer, appear the same shade of blue, lighter than the others, but darker than they were.

Florida and Nevada have blinked bluer, appear the same shade to me, seem to be the same shade as North Carolina.

The Pacific Coast is the deepest blue on 538's spectrum. That is a change, I recollect, for Oregon. from Washington to Califoenia. Colorado and New Mexico are the same shade and appear to be a slightly off rhe deepest blue of the Pacific states. Arizona has blinked from the palest blue that is still blue to a more definite blue but still pretty light. The palest blue on this spectrum is Iowa's.

Trump's deepest red "lock" states are the Big XII, SEC and Mountain West Conferences and their sstates: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wyoming and Idaho. If jack rabbits, snakes, deer and big horn sheep could increase their IQ's just a couple of points, they would be as qualified as the humans in those states and would form a formidable voting bloc for the Republicans. But they can't and the humans in those precincts are a non-factor in the Electoral College.

A blue thunder rolls overhead and all across America, and beneath it the red lights are blinking out.