Monday, June 08, 2020

The Great Trump Death

That doesn't look good, does it? No, it doesn't. This is Hopkins' five-day Cases average through yesterday, June 7, the broken shards of glass graph.

Yes the triangle is red Up, and that is for the second day in a row.. Look more closely, though. June 7 closed higher than the immediately preceding peak. That is the first time that that has happened since late April. That is why we have been able to stair-step down. It's hard to be certain just looking and comparing but the current peak is certainly higher than the previous two peaks and about at the level of the third peak over from the right, which is in mid-May.

WaPo's seven-day Cases average through June 7, the suspension bridge line, and the bar graph. A noticeable dip in the seven-day average culminating June 7 but very much in line with the seven-day average since May 28's grouping.




















Hopkins Cases bar graph, The Wall, complete through June 7:





















It always looks worse, which is why we give primacy to the average line graphs. You just don't see any progress there. The daily entries all seems to average out to about the same going back to May 16, over three weeks ago. Maybe it's Hopkins' broken shards average graph that so disorients with its jagged peaks and valleys for that five-day G-force test line averages out to about the same level as in mid-May.

WaPo's seven-day Deaths line and bar graph:


A beautiful, clear decline in the line groupings for four straight days. Three days of daily Death count declines. A clear line decline since the third week in April

At 1:11 a.m.June 8, today, there were 110,514 Americans who had been Killed by Donald Trump per Johns Hopkins. At 11:05 p.m. June 8, 22'54" later there are,

110,990 Total Killed by Trump per Hopkins.

5.66% Trump's Kill efficiency, 40/100ths off his high, a tremendous improveent and another daily decline.

So with the raw data in the questions of the day and of the last few weeks: Why would the Cases graphs be so recalcitrant when the Deaths graph keeps getting prettier? And why does Trump's Kill efficiency keep dropping? 

I am as sure as a non-medical person can be that a major reason why the Cases and Deaths graphs look different is substantially right here in this number:


20,235,678 That is the number of Americans who have been tested for the Trump Virus. That is 5.29% of the entire population. That is way, WAY up from what it was early on. The more people you test the more people you''re going to find test positive! How many? What percentage of those tested tested+?

1,956,527 is the cumulative total number of confirmed Trump Virus Cases.

9.66% of those tested so far have tested+ for the virus. That's almost 10% man, to me that is surprisingly high.

So vastly increased numbers of those tested is on HUGE reason why the Cases graph is always such a pain in the ass compared to beautiful Deaths. I know, I do not just reasonably think, I know that the positive cases are now spread out more chronologically and more geographically. New York City got inundated with cases early on. Now Governor Cuomo is preparing to reopen the city! Well, that means that hospitals in the NYC area are no longer overflowing, overwhelmed, and underequipped. Now, NYC area hospitals can handle the diminished daily load. Now, Cases are popping up in the comparatively sparsely populated South and Southwest, states that have to be destroyed anyway. Seriously, new cases are now spread over a much, much larger geographical area rather than in one densely populated urban area where a small number of hospitals have to handle the crushing burden.

There is a positive picture being painted here and the third party of out triptych is this. Before determined testing, people got their first test in the hospital, when they were already so sick that they had to be hospitalized. Now, people who are asymptomatic are walking into the neighborhood health clinic and getting tested. If an asymptomatic person unexpectedly tests+  health care providers can now treat them and monitor them in direless circumstances.

So those are three pretty good reasons that the Cases and Deaths graphs look so differently.