Sunday, June 14, 2020

The Trump Killing Field

Wow! With only two hours left in the day this is on track to be the best, I have to stop writing that, the least bad day for Deaths since March 26! Now somebody's going to make a liar out of me. When I checked Hopkins just before 1 a.m. today, June 14, the final numbers for June 13 were in: 115,436. Checking the same site just now, there are 115,732 deaths. Subtracting the two, there were 296 Deaths today, June 14. However. But. For reasons known only to them Hopkins does not publish a Deaths line average or bar graph for Deaths. So I have to switch sites to get that. Checking WaPo there are an interim 398 reported Deaths today. Through exasperating experience I know that Chief WaPo no countum too good. The Chief's numbers, for both Deaths and Cases, is always, I mean always, lower than Hopkins'. Here, their Deaths is 100 more than my count from 12:58 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. on Hopkins. That will not stand. The Times, like Hopkins, does not report an interim daily bar graph count. Just pulling a number out of my asshole, let's say Hopkins and the Times come in with a final of 500 Deaths for the day. That would be consistent with the "architectural" pattern we have seen previously, a four-step terrace down to June 14, rock bottom and then a new structure would be built up. The proffered 500 Deaths would be the lowest since June 7. Same over at the teepee. In both NYT's and WaPo's sites the most-important data set, the seven-day line on both would continue its thrilling route down.

Cases, are as they have always been the class retard. WaPo already has an interim 21.3k June 14, 26.2k June 13. NYT has 25.3k June 13, less than WaPo. Hopkins has 25.5k June 13, slightly more than NYT but 700 fewer than WaPo.

Bottom line: unless any of these three data bases go completely off the rails in the next 2 hours the Cases line average (five days for Hopkins, seven for the Post and Times) will rise slightly rise and show every sign of being content to loll on the current plateau, which now stretches a month. Frustrating as the Cases graphs are, we must keep our eyes on the prize, Deaths, and Deaths are consistently down according to any site.

Let's do one final check and risk shattering my monitor with a short, powerful jab.

Deaths June 14, Hopkins:

115,732 total, unchanged from the beginning of this post.

296 Deaths June 14.(by my subtraction)


Times:

693 Deaths June 13, no interim report for June 14.


WaPo:

626, June 13.

398 interim June 14

Bottom-bottom line: less bad than expected for Deaths across all three data bases.