Joe Biden now leads Trump by 8.5% 9.7% nationally in RCP's average, not one poll, an average of all the recent polls. That is a landslide, 8.5% is a landslide. 9.7% is a landslide plus tsunami. Biden's all-time high is 10.2%. Biden has led every fucking day since Sept. 1, 2019. Only one week ago, on Sept. 28, 2020, on October 1, 2020, the day before the first debate, Biden's lead was 6.8% 7.2%. A 1.7% 2.5% increase in one WEEK. Biden's average lead in RCP's first six "top battleground" states is up to 4.1%. 4.6%. Biden needs a net three plus states so, say he needs to win eight of the total twelve battleground states. Right now, with 28 27 days left, Biden is 11-1. He leads in every battleground state except Texas. Caveat: In the six tippy-top battleground states (PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, AZ) common to 2016 and 2020 in RCP Trump is +0.4% 0.2% "less behind" than he was in 2016. Caveat to the caveat: Unlike in '16 Trump is not gaining ground, he's lost so much he's about standing on a postage stamp. RCP's no-tossups Electoral College map is unchanged: has Biden blowing Trump out 375 374-163 (RCP flipped ME-2 to Trump). All to say, in a normal election Joe Biden is wiping Donald Trump off the face of the planet in a blue tsunami.
In a normal election. This has been the most fucking abnormal election in the most abnormal year in fucking man's history. 77,000 "strategically placed votes" decided the 2016 election in the Electoral College. I have pulled out of my ass 200,000 as the guesstimated number of votes the Russians and Trump are capable of "strategically" placing, suppressing, or disappearing this time around without being too obvious about it. Whatever the number is there is a ceiling. I don't know what number is their ceiling; my ass doesn't have that one. But it's not California. They're not capable of flipping California to Trump.
All to say, 8.5%, 9.7% is above the Russo-Republicans ceiling (betcha) and 4.1% 4.6% in the most competitive states, is at or very near the extent of their capabilities, assuming a "reasonable" amount of violence and theft, nothing too crazy, say whatever the Trump Plague Death toll is through November 3; 211k now, say 231k on election day. Pertneer what my ass told me.
Is 231,000 votes going to be enough for Trump to win with these deficits? He needs to hold three of the top six, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona that he stole in 2016. Out of my ass 231k will steal him Florida and North Carolina and maybe Arizona but he is not going to have enough theft left to hold Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or Michigan or Florida (Trump is behind 4.5% in Florida today.) His deficits in those Big Four of the Top Six are an average 5.8%. Those are big states with millions of votes and Trump is under water by 5.8%. However, assuming as we are, roughly 3x the fraud in 2016 when just 77k in WI, MI, and PA did it, yes: Trump could steal North Carolina, Arizona, and one of the Big Four and "win" another FOUR MORE! Except he's flying backasswards hemorrhaging support by the day and is out of whatcha call moolah and had to pull TV ads in all of the battlegrounds in favor of Facebook lol.
Trump is in the position of the little Dutch Boy and the dam. Too many leaks have sprung and Trump has run out of stubby little fingers to plug them. His 231k "bonus votes" are being stretched see-through thin, he has no money and he’s going to have to use some of both to hold Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa. Arizona is also not as elastic or as corrupt as the low-hanging fruit of, say, FL and NC and Biden has a larger lead in AZ than in Ohio and Iowa. If Trump continues to fuck up and loses, say, Ohio (Biden's lead today is a minuscule 0.6%), then he has to replace with a win in PA (-7.1%), or MI (-6.2%) or WI (-5.5%): the stretch becomes a break. If he can't hold Georgia and Iowa in addition then the dam breaks and Little Dutch Boy Trumpie is submerged under a blue tsunami. He can't do it. Even giving him "reasonable" levels of fraud and violence Trump is doomed.
