Sorry Triple Crown fans: American Phaorah will not win the Belmont Stakes| Politi
Before you put your hard-earned greenbacks on those trifectas and superfectas, before you invite the entire clan to your house to witness horse racing history, before you invest four hours getting into the Belmont parking lots and another four hours getting out, let me let you in on a little secret:
The horse will not win.
-Steve Politi, nj.com
American Pharoah may win the Triple Crown but I'm betting against it.
Yet despite all American Pharoah’s obvious strengths, I would counsel casual fans and serious players not to bet him — except possibly for a $2 souvenir ticket on what might be history’s 12th sweep of the Triple Crown. I will play the Belmont by taking a stand against the favorite; he won’t be on any of my exacta or trifecta tickets.
The factors that have foiled more than a dozen Triple Crown bids since 1978 apply as forcefully to American Pharoah as to the horses who failed before him. Moreover, there are elements of his own racing record that suggest he is not as invincible as he may look on paper.
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American Pharoah cannot necessarily overcome these challenges because he possesses dominating talent. He has never been forced to overcome adversity; in his six-race winning streak, he has never had a straw in his path. He got a perfect trip in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby field. He won the Preakness over a muddy track that four of his seven rivals, including his two main challengers, couldn’t handle. It may have appeared that he was finishing strongly in these two victories, but he wasn’t. He ran the final quarter mile of the Derby in a slow 26.57 seconds and the final fraction of the muddy Preakness in the equivalent of 27.62 seconds for a quarter mile — hardly an indication that he wants to go a longer distance.
-Andrew Beyer, Washington Post.
Before you put your hard-earned greenbacks on those trifectas and superfectas, before you invite the entire clan to your house to witness horse racing history, before you invest four hours getting into the Belmont parking lots and another four hours getting out, let me let you in on a little secret:
The horse will not win.
-Steve Politi, nj.com
American Pharoah may win the Triple Crown but I'm betting against it.
Yet despite all American Pharoah’s obvious strengths, I would counsel casual fans and serious players not to bet him — except possibly for a $2 souvenir ticket on what might be history’s 12th sweep of the Triple Crown. I will play the Belmont by taking a stand against the favorite; he won’t be on any of my exacta or trifecta tickets.
The factors that have foiled more than a dozen Triple Crown bids since 1978 apply as forcefully to American Pharoah as to the horses who failed before him. Moreover, there are elements of his own racing record that suggest he is not as invincible as he may look on paper.
...
American Pharoah cannot necessarily overcome these challenges because he possesses dominating talent. He has never been forced to overcome adversity; in his six-race winning streak, he has never had a straw in his path. He got a perfect trip in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby field. He won the Preakness over a muddy track that four of his seven rivals, including his two main challengers, couldn’t handle. It may have appeared that he was finishing strongly in these two victories, but he wasn’t. He ran the final quarter mile of the Derby in a slow 26.57 seconds and the final fraction of the muddy Preakness in the equivalent of 27.62 seconds for a quarter mile — hardly an indication that he wants to go a longer distance.
-Andrew Beyer, Washington Post.
