Sunday, April 16, 2017

Manchester "Buccaneers" 2 Swine Chelsea 0

Impressive win by the "Bucs" today, very impressive win. Gives Spurs reason to go on. They are four back with six to play.

The table is more deceptive than ever I remember it. Some clubs have played 33 matches, some have played 32, a few have played 31 but one club has played only 30, Arsenal. I don't know the reason for that. When you get three points for a win things are not as they appear. Arsenal sit seventh but are three points behind sixth place Everton with three games in hand; six behind fifth place United with one in hand and ten behind fourth place City with two more to play. So, if you give Arsenal nine extra points...I didn't do that. I determined Arsenal's points per game through 30, 1.8, and multiplied by three, the number of games they have over Everton, to get 5.4 more plausible points, a total of 59, two ahead of Everton. Multiplying by two, the number of matches they have over City yields four extra points, still six behind, and City is the money pot for Arsenal, they sit in fourth place and that's the last guaranteed Champions League slot. Plus Arsenal get a trophy for finishing fourth. They ain't gonna get one this year. They will get the Europa League and Young Boys if they finish their plausible sixth.

Making the same plausibility adjustment to United's total gives them two extra points, still two behind fourth place City. ManU will probably land on Europa again next season. (BUT, there is a second path. If they WIN the Europa League this year--auto berth in Champs League next.)

Chelsea and Tottenham have each played 32 so my math work is complete for the day.