Thursday, November 05, 2020

Keystone

You might put more stock in NYT Nate Cohn’s calculations than in mine I said might:

NYT:

Joe Biden looks to be on the cusp of winning the election. Here’s a look at where the vote count stands in the key states.

Pennsylvania

President Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has plummeted to two percentage points as of Thursday morning, as the mail absentee ballot count proceeded briskly across the state.

There is every indication that Mr. Biden remains on track to pull ahead when all of the votes are in and counted, whenever that may be.

So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same 77-22 pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion.