U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Falling, but Variants Could Erase Progress

New daily cases are starting to slow in what some health experts see as a turning point. But they warn of a bumpy vaccination rollout amid the emergence of more contagious variants.

See, one full day of President Biden! lol

Cases really have been falling. This is the Times' 7-day average graph.

That is a "normal" curve for Deaths, which occur two-four weeks after infection. The Cases average peaked on Jan. 8. The slight uptick in the Jan. 20-21 iterations can be expected to continue as that enormous bulk of Cases works its way through.

I still do not understand the lack of correlation between Deaths and Hospitalizations. These are the Times' 14-day changes:

-21% Cases
-3% Hospitalizations
+11% Deaths

It's just common sense that the sequence is Cases to Hospitalizations to Deaths so I don't understand how Hospitalizations have declined by 3% yet Deaths risen. And that has been out of whack for awhile now. I previously speculated that maybe hospitalizations were at capacity and people were dying at home but 1) We would have read something about that had that been the case, and 2) It has continued. Hospitalizations have not been always negative, they were flat recently, but as you can see the 7-day average has been on a clear decline.

The peak there is Jan. 12. Well, I can force sense into that. I don't know what the "normal" lag time is between infection and hospitalization, nor between hospitalization and death--shorter than the two-four weeks from infection to death though,obviously. So, if Hospitalizations peaked on the 12th and Deaths started upticking on the 20th: eight days. Deaths for today should tick down but I'll betcha they don't.