I am shocked about the "Heat."
And utterly puzzled.
There is something of a pattern here. Twice in the last five seasons, they have had reverse half seasons. 11-30 in the first half of 2015/16, 30-11 in the second half. This season 25-9 and then 10-11. Two completely different teams, the personnel hardly overlapping. One season it's the first half that is horrific; another it's the second half. Last season the team couldn't win at home. This season they can't win out-of-town.
A reversion to the mean? Bosh! What mean? How can you be 11-30 and then 30-11? Yes, it's a long season; yes, teams go on winning streaks and have losing streaks. We're not talking about small sample sizes here, we're talking about half seasons. An 11-30 team going on a 15-game win streak? When has that ever happened before? Never. When before has a team gone 11-30 and then 30-11? Never.
"The 'Heat' got off to a slow start in 2015/16." Okay. The "Heat" got off to a hot start this season. "Start": I object to "start." A "start" to the season is, I don't know, ten games. A "start" to the season is is not 25-9, 41% of the season. A "start" is not 11-30. The word for that is half.
"Riley threatened to trade the entire team at mid-season 2015/16; that kicked them into gear." Well, which was the "real" gear? The one they were stuck in or the one Riley kicked them into? "The real gear was .500, they were always just a .500 team." Oh, so realizing half-way through the season that they were 19 games below their "real" level, they decided they needed to "step up;" Riley's threat "kick started" them to the third best record in the NBA over the second half so they could punch their weight? So neither the first half gear nor the second half gear was "real;" they went from first gear (which wasn't real) to fifth gear (which wasn't real) to finish in third gear (real). Get the fuck out of town.
Riley didn't trade the team at mid-season 2015/16. He did trade three laggards this season. Should he not have done that? Threaten, don't act? Is that the way to "kick start" a team? Stick with Dion Waiters and James Johnson one more year? Hide the Doans and give Justise Winslow the whole year off?
Some explained the 2015/16 about face as a function of fattening up on opponents going through mid-Winter doldrums. And there is mid-Winter ennui, there is no doubt about that. But we're not talking about December, January, February. We're talking about January to April. In the latter half of the second half of seasons it is always said that that is when teams shake the ennui and step up their play in playoff jockeying. So how does that explain this season? "They're going through the doldrums." And other teams? Other teams are not? Brooklyn was not, New York was not, Atlanta was hot, not not?
That's another part of the pattern. The "Heat" this season is suddenly losing to dross. They did that all of last season. Losses to Atlanta, Charlotte. This season, Atlanta, Brooklyn, New York.
"Teams figured out Spoelstra's zone." There is something to that too. We have heard that. From Doc Rivers to Boston to Utah. "Yeah, we figured out Spoelstra's zone." Well, what about Iggy? Wasn't Iggy brought in so Spo didn't have to cook some potion up in his kettle that would befuddle opponents? So he would have somebody who could play lock-down, stickum man-to-man? "Iggy's too old; hadn't played all year. Rusty. Too old and rusty." So Riley shouldn't have made that trade? Should have stuck with Justise to guard them from his sofa? Should have stuck with Glue Waiters? C'mon man, I mean, Trae Young, playing for a 16-41 team, just dropped half a hundred on the "Heat." He REALLY figured out Spo's zone, huh? C'mon man.
I am not going to end this with "It's a little bit of all of those things." Drives me nuts when people do that. Biggest crutch there is. There is one constant. One thing has not changed in the five years from 2015 to present: "Heat" Culture. Riles is constant as president, Spo is constant as coach. Riles made and didn't make all of those personnel moves; Spoelstra has coached all of the personnel Riley has gotten. What's wrong with "Heat" Culture? It is a model for other teams; constantly lauded; how dare I? It's not constantly lauded. It's intermittently lauded. It's lauded as the explanation when the team goes 30-11 or 25-9. The lauding is inaudible when the team goes 11-30 or 10-11. "Na-ah, that's not 'Heat' Culture." Yes, it was! You can't take the good but not the bad. The Culture has been transmuted Riley to Spoelstra since 2008. It is the one constant. The local "Heat" writers have not lauded "Heat" Culture during the four years in Middlesbrough. They insert things here and there. whisper whisper whisper some free agents don't want to come to miami because heat culture kicks their ass whisper whisper heat culture puts a premium on hard work not talent whisper whisper.
I have wondered, maybe in print, I don't remember, if "Heat" Culture is too rigorous over 82 games; 100-100, 100% effort 100% of the time, I have wondered if that is sustainable over 82 games. I have put myself in the players' shoes. Do I go 100-100 in my work? I cannot. I am not mentally or physically strong enough to do that. I don't think any human being can go 100-100. But. But I have wondered if 100-100 is sustainable 82 times in six months. Once every third day. Could I do that? Yes, and I do. But "Heat" Culture expects 100-100 in practice, too! So, 100-100 practically every day. I couldn't do it, I don't think anybody can. I know I have written this before: Pat Riley's demands on the Showtime "Lakers"--One time he had them practicing in the ballroom of the hotel, Pause: He had Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Magic Johnson, and James Worthy practicing in the fucking ballroom of the fucking hotel. Unpause.--Riley's 100-100 demands were too much for the Showtime "Lakers," they hit the wall and turned on Riley. They just couldn't do it. Kareem, Magic and Big Game James just couldn't do it!!!!!!!
So, am I really saying that Miami "Heat" Culture is the meaning in this pattern?...I'm wavering and vacillating...Yes. It's the one constant. It explains both the white hot winning and the flame-outs. It explains "Heat" player development, how they, and they alone, can make any player the 100% best that he can be. And it explains the ceiling. It explains that NBA evaluator saying when the "Heat" was sitting fourth in the East, "I still think they've got sixth-place talent."
I think it was Ira Winderman who wrote last year that other team player personnel guys discount "Heat" players a bit. "They will not perform to that level here. Only in Miami." Would Bam Adebayo have been a (reserve) all-star if he had played on any other team? Does that need an answer? Recall that Gregg Popovich cut Bam in Team USA tryouts. The "Heat" admit that they prefer a 100-100 guy like Bam to a 50-50 guy who leads the NBA in rebounds one year and blocks another. They love finding hidden gems, guys who were overlooked, who came up the hard way like Spo did: start in the video room, coach the Big Three; like Micky Arison did: start in the boiler room, work the way up to CEO. They don't like entitled millennials like Ben Simmons. They hate the draft. Can't stand five-stars prima donnas. The problem with that part of "Heat" Culture is that you can polish and polish that rough-hewn stone until it glitters like the real thing but "really" it's still and always has been cubic zirconium.
So yes, I have an abiding conviction. Yes (snore), of course, it is a little bit of all those other things but it is mostly about one thing: For much more better than worse "Heat" Culture is the explanation, the blessing and the curse.
And utterly puzzled.
There is something of a pattern here. Twice in the last five seasons, they have had reverse half seasons. 11-30 in the first half of 2015/16, 30-11 in the second half. This season 25-9 and then 10-11. Two completely different teams, the personnel hardly overlapping. One season it's the first half that is horrific; another it's the second half. Last season the team couldn't win at home. This season they can't win out-of-town.
A reversion to the mean? Bosh! What mean? How can you be 11-30 and then 30-11? Yes, it's a long season; yes, teams go on winning streaks and have losing streaks. We're not talking about small sample sizes here, we're talking about half seasons. An 11-30 team going on a 15-game win streak? When has that ever happened before? Never. When before has a team gone 11-30 and then 30-11? Never.
"The 'Heat' got off to a slow start in 2015/16." Okay. The "Heat" got off to a hot start this season. "Start": I object to "start." A "start" to the season is, I don't know, ten games. A "start" to the season is is not 25-9, 41% of the season. A "start" is not 11-30. The word for that is half.
"Riley threatened to trade the entire team at mid-season 2015/16; that kicked them into gear." Well, which was the "real" gear? The one they were stuck in or the one Riley kicked them into? "The real gear was .500, they were always just a .500 team." Oh, so realizing half-way through the season that they were 19 games below their "real" level, they decided they needed to "step up;" Riley's threat "kick started" them to the third best record in the NBA over the second half so they could punch their weight? So neither the first half gear nor the second half gear was "real;" they went from first gear (which wasn't real) to fifth gear (which wasn't real) to finish in third gear (real). Get the fuck out of town.
Riley didn't trade the team at mid-season 2015/16. He did trade three laggards this season. Should he not have done that? Threaten, don't act? Is that the way to "kick start" a team? Stick with Dion Waiters and James Johnson one more year? Hide the Doans and give Justise Winslow the whole year off?
Some explained the 2015/16 about face as a function of fattening up on opponents going through mid-Winter doldrums. And there is mid-Winter ennui, there is no doubt about that. But we're not talking about December, January, February. We're talking about January to April. In the latter half of the second half of seasons it is always said that that is when teams shake the ennui and step up their play in playoff jockeying. So how does that explain this season? "They're going through the doldrums." And other teams? Other teams are not? Brooklyn was not, New York was not, Atlanta was hot, not not?
That's another part of the pattern. The "Heat" this season is suddenly losing to dross. They did that all of last season. Losses to Atlanta, Charlotte. This season, Atlanta, Brooklyn, New York.
"Teams figured out Spoelstra's zone." There is something to that too. We have heard that. From Doc Rivers to Boston to Utah. "Yeah, we figured out Spoelstra's zone." Well, what about Iggy? Wasn't Iggy brought in so Spo didn't have to cook some potion up in his kettle that would befuddle opponents? So he would have somebody who could play lock-down, stickum man-to-man? "Iggy's too old; hadn't played all year. Rusty. Too old and rusty." So Riley shouldn't have made that trade? Should have stuck with Justise to guard them from his sofa? Should have stuck with Glue Waiters? C'mon man, I mean, Trae Young, playing for a 16-41 team, just dropped half a hundred on the "Heat." He REALLY figured out Spo's zone, huh? C'mon man.
I am not going to end this with "It's a little bit of all of those things." Drives me nuts when people do that. Biggest crutch there is. There is one constant. One thing has not changed in the five years from 2015 to present: "Heat" Culture. Riles is constant as president, Spo is constant as coach. Riles made and didn't make all of those personnel moves; Spoelstra has coached all of the personnel Riley has gotten. What's wrong with "Heat" Culture? It is a model for other teams; constantly lauded; how dare I? It's not constantly lauded. It's intermittently lauded. It's lauded as the explanation when the team goes 30-11 or 25-9. The lauding is inaudible when the team goes 11-30 or 10-11. "Na-ah, that's not 'Heat' Culture." Yes, it was! You can't take the good but not the bad. The Culture has been transmuted Riley to Spoelstra since 2008. It is the one constant. The local "Heat" writers have not lauded "Heat" Culture during the four years in Middlesbrough. They insert things here and there. whisper whisper whisper some free agents don't want to come to miami because heat culture kicks their ass whisper whisper heat culture puts a premium on hard work not talent whisper whisper.
I have wondered, maybe in print, I don't remember, if "Heat" Culture is too rigorous over 82 games; 100-100, 100% effort 100% of the time, I have wondered if that is sustainable over 82 games. I have put myself in the players' shoes. Do I go 100-100 in my work? I cannot. I am not mentally or physically strong enough to do that. I don't think any human being can go 100-100. But. But I have wondered if 100-100 is sustainable 82 times in six months. Once every third day. Could I do that? Yes, and I do. But "Heat" Culture expects 100-100 in practice, too! So, 100-100 practically every day. I couldn't do it, I don't think anybody can. I know I have written this before: Pat Riley's demands on the Showtime "Lakers"--One time he had them practicing in the ballroom of the hotel, Pause: He had Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Magic Johnson, and James Worthy practicing in the fucking ballroom of the fucking hotel. Unpause.--Riley's 100-100 demands were too much for the Showtime "Lakers," they hit the wall and turned on Riley. They just couldn't do it. Kareem, Magic and Big Game James just couldn't do it!!!!!!!
So, am I really saying that Miami "Heat" Culture is the meaning in this pattern?...I'm wavering and vacillating...Yes. It's the one constant. It explains both the white hot winning and the flame-outs. It explains "Heat" player development, how they, and they alone, can make any player the 100% best that he can be. And it explains the ceiling. It explains that NBA evaluator saying when the "Heat" was sitting fourth in the East, "I still think they've got sixth-place talent."
I think it was Ira Winderman who wrote last year that other team player personnel guys discount "Heat" players a bit. "They will not perform to that level here. Only in Miami." Would Bam Adebayo have been a (reserve) all-star if he had played on any other team? Does that need an answer? Recall that Gregg Popovich cut Bam in Team USA tryouts. The "Heat" admit that they prefer a 100-100 guy like Bam to a 50-50 guy who leads the NBA in rebounds one year and blocks another. They love finding hidden gems, guys who were overlooked, who came up the hard way like Spo did: start in the video room, coach the Big Three; like Micky Arison did: start in the boiler room, work the way up to CEO. They don't like entitled millennials like Ben Simmons. They hate the draft. Can't stand five-stars prima donnas. The problem with that part of "Heat" Culture is that you can polish and polish that rough-hewn stone until it glitters like the real thing but "really" it's still and always has been cubic zirconium.
So yes, I have an abiding conviction. Yes (snore), of course, it is a little bit of all those other things but it is mostly about one thing: For much more better than worse "Heat" Culture is the explanation, the blessing and the curse.
