Two-thirds of the way through the season the Miami "Heat" come off the all-star break 35-19, fourth in the Eastern Conference. Fourth would give them home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Pre-season the cognos thought Jimmy Butler would be enough to lift Miami out of the mire of last season's tenth place finish and into the playoffs. The mean of informed opinion was that the "Heat" would likely finish this season in sixth place. Prior to the all-star break (and prior to the Iguodala trade if I recall correctly) an anonymous NBA scout told the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson that he believed the "Heat" had sixth-place talent. Post-trade deadline an evaluator, maybe the same one, told Jackson that Danilo Gallinari would have been the season changer for the "Heat." (Anthony Chiang, in the article cited below, writes that Miami management concluded that Gallinari did not really want to come to Miami. Anthony thereby confirms Barry's earlier report that "Heat" management are confident that if a target wants to come to Miami, management can do what is necessary to get him here.) So, at fourth, the "Heat" is sitting a couple of seats closer to the front of the class than their innate talent warrants, according to evaluators. Chiang writes today that the "Heat" have a favorable forecast to finish fourth with sixteen games at home, twelve away and only three of the twelve against teams with winning records.
Recent weather in Miami however has been cool. A blistering 25-9 has been followed by 10-10; 4-6 on the last ten game days, 1-4 in the last five. All three losses at home this season have come against elite opponents, LAL, LAC, and Boston, those last two during this 10-10 malaise. Two losses on the road were "winnable" games against dreadful opponents, Brooklyn and New York. In my mind it was that shock Debacle in the Apple in mid-January that foretold the cooling off of the "Heat." More worrying, LAC, Boston and Utah (another elite team) on this last trip, all beat the "Heat" by figuring out Miami's zone.
I largely wrote off the 1-4 road trip before the break. That five game western swing came amidst roster turmoil unprecedented this season. Meyers Leonard, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro were out injured at the beginning, Leonard missed all five games. The trade sent three players who hardly played away for three who had never played. As I recall none of the newcomers were available for the first game in Los Angeles against the "Clippers." Pat Riley hardly ever makes mid-season trades and musical chairs is a good reason for that. So Jimmy Butler is certainly correct when he says, “We got some new pieces in the mix. Everybody’s getting used to everybody still. In the second half of the season, we got some business to handle.” Getting their business in order, fixing their defense, and coming up with a new seating chart for the remainder of the season, starting tomorrow night against Atlanta, is of course the task of Erik Spoelstra. And that makes me at least nervous.
The most settling thing (to me anyway) about this season was Spoelstra settling on a starting five in the very first game and sticking with it. Imo, Spo is a tinkerer at heart, which is unfortunate because he's not very good at it, he succumbs to overchoice. During games he forgets about guys who he has at the end of the bench. Last season, the third straight year with the same core players, Spo could not find a starting lineup which pleasured him. He tried something like seventeen different combinations. Drove me mad. Drove the players mad. The players never knew if they were going to get twenty-five minutes, ten minutes, or not play at all. That's the hindcast. Now, Spo has to find a place for Andre Iguodala and probably for Jae Crowder (he has forgotten he has Solomon Hill, who hasn't played a minute for Miami). Doesn't Iggy have to start? Wasn't he brought in to be the fix on backcourt defense? If so, whose place in the starting lineup does he take, Meyers' or Kendrick's? If he starts, the synergy of the opening night starting lineup is thrown into flux since "everybody's getting used to everybody still." If Iguodala doesn't start, where does he fit in the rotation? Who does he bump down, Tyler? Duncan? Jae is not a starter, is he? If not--and he has been surprisingly very productive so far--whose place does he take in the rotation? If he is a starter, see above on Iggy. These are all questions that Spo must get the correct answer to if Miami is to finish fourth. On hindsight, I, at least, am not optimistic.
Pre-season the cognos thought Jimmy Butler would be enough to lift Miami out of the mire of last season's tenth place finish and into the playoffs. The mean of informed opinion was that the "Heat" would likely finish this season in sixth place. Prior to the all-star break (and prior to the Iguodala trade if I recall correctly) an anonymous NBA scout told the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson that he believed the "Heat" had sixth-place talent. Post-trade deadline an evaluator, maybe the same one, told Jackson that Danilo Gallinari would have been the season changer for the "Heat." (Anthony Chiang, in the article cited below, writes that Miami management concluded that Gallinari did not really want to come to Miami. Anthony thereby confirms Barry's earlier report that "Heat" management are confident that if a target wants to come to Miami, management can do what is necessary to get him here.) So, at fourth, the "Heat" is sitting a couple of seats closer to the front of the class than their innate talent warrants, according to evaluators. Chiang writes today that the "Heat" have a favorable forecast to finish fourth with sixteen games at home, twelve away and only three of the twelve against teams with winning records.
Recent weather in Miami however has been cool. A blistering 25-9 has been followed by 10-10; 4-6 on the last ten game days, 1-4 in the last five. All three losses at home this season have come against elite opponents, LAL, LAC, and Boston, those last two during this 10-10 malaise. Two losses on the road were "winnable" games against dreadful opponents, Brooklyn and New York. In my mind it was that shock Debacle in the Apple in mid-January that foretold the cooling off of the "Heat." More worrying, LAC, Boston and Utah (another elite team) on this last trip, all beat the "Heat" by figuring out Miami's zone.
I largely wrote off the 1-4 road trip before the break. That five game western swing came amidst roster turmoil unprecedented this season. Meyers Leonard, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro were out injured at the beginning, Leonard missed all five games. The trade sent three players who hardly played away for three who had never played. As I recall none of the newcomers were available for the first game in Los Angeles against the "Clippers." Pat Riley hardly ever makes mid-season trades and musical chairs is a good reason for that. So Jimmy Butler is certainly correct when he says, “We got some new pieces in the mix. Everybody’s getting used to everybody still. In the second half of the season, we got some business to handle.” Getting their business in order, fixing their defense, and coming up with a new seating chart for the remainder of the season, starting tomorrow night against Atlanta, is of course the task of Erik Spoelstra. And that makes me at least nervous.
The most settling thing (to me anyway) about this season was Spoelstra settling on a starting five in the very first game and sticking with it. Imo, Spo is a tinkerer at heart, which is unfortunate because he's not very good at it, he succumbs to overchoice. During games he forgets about guys who he has at the end of the bench. Last season, the third straight year with the same core players, Spo could not find a starting lineup which pleasured him. He tried something like seventeen different combinations. Drove me mad. Drove the players mad. The players never knew if they were going to get twenty-five minutes, ten minutes, or not play at all. That's the hindcast. Now, Spo has to find a place for Andre Iguodala and probably for Jae Crowder (he has forgotten he has Solomon Hill, who hasn't played a minute for Miami). Doesn't Iggy have to start? Wasn't he brought in to be the fix on backcourt defense? If so, whose place in the starting lineup does he take, Meyers' or Kendrick's? If he starts, the synergy of the opening night starting lineup is thrown into flux since "everybody's getting used to everybody still." If Iguodala doesn't start, where does he fit in the rotation? Who does he bump down, Tyler? Duncan? Jae is not a starter, is he? If not--and he has been surprisingly very productive so far--whose place does he take in the rotation? If he is a starter, see above on Iggy. These are all questions that Spo must get the correct answer to if Miami is to finish fourth. On hindsight, I, at least, am not optimistic.
