The Miami Heat Won’t Maintain This Pace All Season

(Matt Moore, Action)

...I’m about to fade them into oblivion — at least for the rest of the regular season.
...

The Heat have made more shots than they should to a degree that cannot simply be ascribed to personnel and coaching superiority. On the flip side, their opponents make fewer shots than they should to a degree that cannot be ascribed to personnel or coaching superiority.

Miami is 13th in expected field goal percentage per Cleaning The Glass, which is still good. However, they rank third in actual eFG%, which means they are shooting well above their expected outcome for all players.

This would be understandable if they were the Warriors, but a team playing multiple rookies along with Jimmy Butler, who’s shooting just 27% from 3-point range on just 2.6 attempts per game? That’s different.

But that’s not all, Miami ranks 21st in opponent expected eFG%, meaning their opponents should be shooting really well … but they’re not. The Heat have the ninth-best opponent actual eFG% league-wide. So teams can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat against the Heat.

In related news, before Dec. 1, the Heat’s defensive rating was below 105 (per NBA Advance Stats). It’s been 111 since Dec. 1, as opponents have gone from a 51.3% eFG to 53.9% (a major jump in league-wide trends) and opponents are shooting better from 3-point range.

Heat opponents have seen their expected eFG% to actual eFG% differential stabilize to within 0.3 percentage points since Thanksgiving.

Man, I give this guy major props as a savant. That was written January 24.