I was reading Kristin Labransdatter for a few hours until about thirty minutes ago. My mind was completely elsewhere, in fourteenth century Sweden, far, far away from politics, Trump Virus, protests, news, anything current. It seemed to me I had been reading for a good while and checked the time. "Oh shit! I have to go get something to eat." I took a shower. Out of the blue I got this feeling, "Biden's going to win." I pay attention to those, feelings that are unprompted by proximate thought. I cannot say that those gut feelings have always been right (because I don't remember) but I always note them. They are "pure"--You can rationalize any damn thing. Biden's gonna win, Trump's gonna win, Trump Virus is going to peter out, it's not, you can use your rational thought and come to a judgment but that is not the same as feeling it unprompted.
I think of the jury instruction on reasonable doubt. I fucking know it by heart.
"A reasonable doubt is not a possible, forced, speculative or imaginary doubt. Such a doubt must not influence you to return a verdict of not guilty because the doubt is not reasonable...If you have no abiding conviction of guilt or if having such a conviction it is one that is not stable but waivers or vacillates, then the doubt is reasonable and you must return a verdict of not guilty."
Of course my shower feeling is not the same as deciding a verdict. One is a...prediction? No, not quite; a feeling! It's just an abiding feeling; the other is a mandatory decision-making tool. But I have thought for quite a long time that an abiding conviction, and one that is stable and does not waiver or vacillate, is a good fit for my gut feelings. You know it when you see it kind of thing. I'll tell you this: for the differences between my shower feelings and jury verdicts, my gut has never been wrong about what the jury is going to do when they go out. Guilty or not guilty, I get a strong gut feeling just like here and my gut has never been wrong.
And of course I have not been away from this subject for a long time, I think about it and read about and think some more about it, just about all the fucking time. So my rational processes do inform the feeling it's just that I'm not trying to convince myself or playing devil's advocate. The feeling is pure. I know it when I feel it. It's calming.
Now what in a nutshell are the thoughts that gave rise to my gut feeling? A big one is that the polls, both nationally and in key states, have been, to me, remarkably stable for quite a while. I may be wrong but the feeling I have is that the polls have been stable since about the third week in March, after Trump declared the national emergency. He got a "crisis" bounce but it was not stable. I am almost certain that the last state to flip was Florida, in early to mid-April, and Biden has held that same ~3% lead ever since. North Carolina is another one. That goddamned thing has been Trump +1 for I think as long as I have been looking at the polls. It is a teeny, tiny difference but it has been almost unbelievably stable. Arizona: Biden for the longest time. Hasn't moved.
Another big one that went into my feeling was another feeling actually, not a thought that was the product of reason: I really, really feel that people have made up their minds how they feel about Trump, pro or con, and certainly little, probably so little as to be close to nothing, is going to change people's minds. And Trump is losing.
Finally, there was an article in, Politico I think it was, with a headline tending to doubt provoking, something like "The Democrats Nightmare Scenario." "Oh jeez, let me see what this is." An Obama economic adviser has been saying since the lockdown went into effect that we are going to see the biggest economic rebound in mankind's history. Of course, it was credible for coming from an Obama adviser, but it didn't give me any nightmares. I could be wrong but I don't think the Obama economic adviser opined the logical, ultimate step, that therefore Trump was going to overtake Biden in the polls. Completely logical, right? "It's the economy, stupid." (Except this is not 1992, stupid.) If he did take that logical next step it didn't cause me to waiver or vacillate. Some other guy made the point in that article, look, Trump has always gotten good marks from voters on his handling of the economy, still does! Still did when 30,000,000 applied for unemployment compensation. How much of a bump is Trump going to get for his handling of the economy if, instead of tanking, it's roaring, was this guy's point. In other words: people have made up their minds. Trump being an economic savant is already baked into the polls. And Trump is losing.
Now of course, of course, maybe the Obama adviser is right--Harry Truman used to say he wanted a one-handed economic adviser because they all would tell him, one the one hand, on the other hand--so maybe this Obama adviser is right and we're going to bam, zoom, to the moon! (I, a non-economist, do not think we're in for bam zooming to the moon--we'll go in orbit. Maybe.) and that will give Trump just enough of a bump to beat Biden. It's five months out! The polls are too close to rule that out. The Russians are coming! All true, I just don't feel it. I feel Biden's going to win.
I think of the jury instruction on reasonable doubt. I fucking know it by heart.
"A reasonable doubt is not a possible, forced, speculative or imaginary doubt. Such a doubt must not influence you to return a verdict of not guilty because the doubt is not reasonable...If you have no abiding conviction of guilt or if having such a conviction it is one that is not stable but waivers or vacillates, then the doubt is reasonable and you must return a verdict of not guilty."
Of course my shower feeling is not the same as deciding a verdict. One is a...prediction? No, not quite; a feeling! It's just an abiding feeling; the other is a mandatory decision-making tool. But I have thought for quite a long time that an abiding conviction, and one that is stable and does not waiver or vacillate, is a good fit for my gut feelings. You know it when you see it kind of thing. I'll tell you this: for the differences between my shower feelings and jury verdicts, my gut has never been wrong about what the jury is going to do when they go out. Guilty or not guilty, I get a strong gut feeling just like here and my gut has never been wrong.
And of course I have not been away from this subject for a long time, I think about it and read about and think some more about it, just about all the fucking time. So my rational processes do inform the feeling it's just that I'm not trying to convince myself or playing devil's advocate. The feeling is pure. I know it when I feel it. It's calming.
Now what in a nutshell are the thoughts that gave rise to my gut feeling? A big one is that the polls, both nationally and in key states, have been, to me, remarkably stable for quite a while. I may be wrong but the feeling I have is that the polls have been stable since about the third week in March, after Trump declared the national emergency. He got a "crisis" bounce but it was not stable. I am almost certain that the last state to flip was Florida, in early to mid-April, and Biden has held that same ~3% lead ever since. North Carolina is another one. That goddamned thing has been Trump +1 for I think as long as I have been looking at the polls. It is a teeny, tiny difference but it has been almost unbelievably stable. Arizona: Biden for the longest time. Hasn't moved.
Another big one that went into my feeling was another feeling actually, not a thought that was the product of reason: I really, really feel that people have made up their minds how they feel about Trump, pro or con, and certainly little, probably so little as to be close to nothing, is going to change people's minds. And Trump is losing.
Finally, there was an article in, Politico I think it was, with a headline tending to doubt provoking, something like "The Democrats Nightmare Scenario." "Oh jeez, let me see what this is." An Obama economic adviser has been saying since the lockdown went into effect that we are going to see the biggest economic rebound in mankind's history. Of course, it was credible for coming from an Obama adviser, but it didn't give me any nightmares. I could be wrong but I don't think the Obama economic adviser opined the logical, ultimate step, that therefore Trump was going to overtake Biden in the polls. Completely logical, right? "It's the economy, stupid." (Except this is not 1992, stupid.) If he did take that logical next step it didn't cause me to waiver or vacillate. Some other guy made the point in that article, look, Trump has always gotten good marks from voters on his handling of the economy, still does! Still did when 30,000,000 applied for unemployment compensation. How much of a bump is Trump going to get for his handling of the economy if, instead of tanking, it's roaring, was this guy's point. In other words: people have made up their minds. Trump being an economic savant is already baked into the polls. And Trump is losing.
Now of course, of course, maybe the Obama adviser is right--Harry Truman used to say he wanted a one-handed economic adviser because they all would tell him, one the one hand, on the other hand--so maybe this Obama adviser is right and we're going to bam, zoom, to the moon! (I, a non-economist, do not think we're in for bam zooming to the moon--we'll go in orbit. Maybe.) and that will give Trump just enough of a bump to beat Biden. It's five months out! The polls are too close to rule that out. The Russians are coming! All true, I just don't feel it. I feel Biden's going to win.
