Trump looks different to me. Down, resigned, defeated, pensive, worried, "scared," as my son said. Well, duh! is an understandable reaction to that. But we know Trump. It's not the closing-on-100,000 dead who he killed that is weighing on him. It's not the unemployed. It is the effect of those things on his reelection. He fears going the way of Herbert Hoover. His most severe epithet is also his greatest fear: Loser. The way he just gave up and walked away at his "Go ask China" Trump Virus briefing; similarly, walking off stage after delivering his infamous inject light/inject disinfectant remarks. He knew that he had humiliated himself.
He is also alone. Trump does not handle being alone well. He doesn't have conjugal relations with his wife. He has no use for anyone who works for him. He was alone on the golf course yesterday.
That is a pathetic image from Saturday.
Trump needs adulation. He direly misses his rallies with his Low Lifes. Trump shot his seed inside Stormy Daniels and Melania abandoned him. But he could shoot a man on Fifth Avenue and not alienate his supporters. His sense of self-worth is now entirely tied to reelection.
He is also alone. Trump does not handle being alone well. He doesn't have conjugal relations with his wife. He has no use for anyone who works for him. He was alone on the golf course yesterday.
That is a pathetic image from Saturday.
"Get the fuck in there," you can almost hear him say.
Trump needs adulation. He direly misses his rallies with his Low Lifes. Trump shot his seed inside Stormy Daniels and Melania abandoned him. But he could shoot a man on Fifth Avenue and not alienate his supporters. His sense of self-worth is now entirely tied to reelection.
Trump processes information primarily emotionally, secondarily intellectually. You see that every time he gets criticized. He instantly counter-punches. Last week or so he had a conference call with his campaign advisers. His pollster delivered him bad news. Trump exploded. "I'm not losing to Biden!" He threatened to sue the guy--his own pollster! He refuses to believe facts when they're negative. He is afraid. I think this emotion-primary, intellect-secondary process is what we saw in a glum Trump on the golf course Saturday. First reaction, emotional: explode at pollster; second reaction, intellectual: "Yeah, I'm losing," to self on golf course.
This election is Trump's to lose but Trump is still losing it. It is also his nightmare. Last year he told aides privately that Biden would be his most difficult opponents. When the candidates began announcing Trump said publicly that he thought Senator Harris had the best opening. Now, it is looking more and more like a Biden-Harris ticket that he is going to have to face.
If you give Biden all of the states and electoral votes that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (and include five "faithless electors" who voted for a third party candidate), and give Trump the same he won (plus two faithless electors), obviously Trump gets reelected. The burden is on Biden, he starts in a -74 electoral hole (This is zero-sum math so a state's electoral votes "flipped" by one candidate are the other candidate's loss.), Trump wins if he just holds what he got in '16. Biden has to win states Trump won in '16. Right now, Biden is doing that--in spades. The Cook Political Report has Biden with a 232-204 Electoral College lead today, exactly the number of electoral votes Clinton won in 2016 (adding the five faithless elector votes). Cook currently has six states and Nebraska's second Congressional District as toss ups. In those six states, all states won by Trump in 2016, RealClearPolitics polling averaging just today:
States Trump won in 2016
+6.5 Biden Pennsylvania (20)
+5.5 Biden Michigan (16)
+4 Biden Arizona (11 Electoral votes)
+3.3 Biden Florida (29)
+2.7 Biden Wisconsin (10)
-1 Biden North Carolina (15)
? Nebraska 2CD (1)
If Biden won all of the states Clinton won and won the swing states above in which he leads today he would beat Trump 318 electoral votes to 220. And Biden today has a cushion that Trump does not have. Biden could afford to lose Florida and Wisconsin and North Carolina if he won the three states in which he has his largest leads today, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Any combination of states adding up to a 38 Biden electoral vote net gain or a Trump 38 vote net loss gives the presidency to Biden. Putting it conversely, starting at Cook's current 204 electoral votes, Trump would have to win Nebraska's 2CD plus North Carolina plus Wisconsin plus Florida plus Arizona just to get to 270. As my son said, Trump is scared and he's an idiot who does not know what to do. Well might he be glum and confused looking at that electoral map. And, he's dangerous, my son again.
It is early, but as 2016 was an election that we had never seen before, 2020 will be also, in my opinion, in this sense: by and large (but there's the rub) people have made up their minds about Donald Trump, for him and against him. That was not the case in 2016. I believe that the winner in 2020 will be determined primarily by voters turning out for Biden, or in the flip of that, on the success of Trump voter suppression. Of course that is why he is going ape shit over mail voting, he has said it publicly himself, "No Republican would ever get elected" if mail voting were permitted.
It is primarily the case that Biden will win if voters swamp Trump like they swamped Senator Sanders in South Carolina and then on Super Tuesday. But it follows from the electoral math that secondarily Biden probably is going to have to change a few people's minds, those who voted for Trump in 2016.
How to do that. The undersigned has thought about how to do that since 2016. It was said of Hillary Clinton in 2016 that she did not make the case well enough for herself. I remember reading that in 2016 and thinking, "She hasn't?" I didn't know that then and I don't know itnow. All that I remember about the campaign messages now is that Trump's serial scandals sucked the oxygen out of the room. I do not remember a single Clinton ad. She certainly did not spend the debates attacking Trump, she was poised, knowledgeable, unflappable, and articulate. She still lost. Does Biden have to make the case for himself as president, not just as "I am not Donald Trump"? Yes. Secondarily, yes. Biden was out of the public eye for three years. Out of sight, out of mind. So Biden should reintroduce himself.
Primarily, however, and I have done a self-check that I am not just projecting my own personality (and I am not sure of that), I think Biden and every surrogate he has should attack Trump relentlessly, daily. The beginning of this post was an account of Trump's personality which is as self-evident as the nose on his face. Trump cannot let an attack, or even a mild criticism, go unanswered. Press button, watch ghoul jump out of box. Those buttons should be pushed until thumbs fall off. About halfway through this post I thought of the Battle of Midway as an analog to this suggestion. The Americans did not get off to a great start at Midway. Their bombers, appropriately named "Buffaloes" in the first waves were slow, couldn't hit anything, and got shot down. But the Americans just kept coming, in wave after wave after wave. They attacked from start to finish and from all directions. The relentlessness of the attacks, even by the ponderous Buffaloes, had this effect: They prevented the Japanese from getting their fighters aloft. They couldn't! The Japanese carriers were sailing in tight circles, in zig-zags, making abrupt turns dodging the American fighters , there was no stable service for the planes to launch. The American attacks went unanswered by the Japanese, the Americans pinned the zeroes to the flight deck and beneath, and made the carriers floating powder kegs. So, and I have made this suggestion previously, Harris as designated hit woman Monday, President Obama Tuesday, Senator Warren Wednesday, Biden Thursday, Bernie, AOC, Senator Kloburchar, Speaker Pelosi, on and on and on. Bait Trump, it doesn't take much: have one of his surrogates outside every damn Trump rally, deprive him of oxygen, keep him on the defensive. Two a day, three a day, that motherfucker won't be able to tweet fast enough. Shoot for sensory overload, tire him, confuse him--Trump is an old guy and Trump cannot not rise to the bait. You attack him from all angles simultaneously--Trump will not recognize it as a calculated strategy to make him short-circuit, he'll rely on his "instincts" and lash out and whatever it is that Trump has as strengths, one is not giving shrewd foresight, he processes information emotionally initially, and he starts to dissemble. Keep Trump pinned downed, make him a walking powder keg--Trump will blow! He will start talking about injecting detergent or fist-fighting Biden. We should want that. What if Trump went over to Biden in frustration during a debate and hair-chested Biden. The more frantic and desperate you make Trump, the more likely he is to detonate and that, getting back to the earlier point, is something that could peel some Trump voters away from Trump, which I think Biden must do. By all accounts from the swing states Biden has had success. The Trump Epidemic hurt Trump, not fatally, but hurt him with even his supporters.
Biden is even older than Trump and Biden looks and acts older. Biden is also a genuinely nice man. When he reintroduces himself to the American voter they will like him. Nobody dislikes Joe Biden. There are a lot of poeple now who want to like a presidential candidate. Biden is the liked by Democrats and unreconstructed Southern segregationist Republicans. He may not have it in him to be an attack dog, so be it. Let Joe be Joe. But there are plenty of others who hate Trump with a purple passion and are straining at the chain desperate to get a piece of Trump's flesh. Release the hounds.
This election is Trump's to lose but Trump is still losing it. It is also his nightmare. Last year he told aides privately that Biden would be his most difficult opponents. When the candidates began announcing Trump said publicly that he thought Senator Harris had the best opening. Now, it is looking more and more like a Biden-Harris ticket that he is going to have to face.
If you give Biden all of the states and electoral votes that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (and include five "faithless electors" who voted for a third party candidate), and give Trump the same he won (plus two faithless electors), obviously Trump gets reelected. The burden is on Biden, he starts in a -74 electoral hole (This is zero-sum math so a state's electoral votes "flipped" by one candidate are the other candidate's loss.), Trump wins if he just holds what he got in '16. Biden has to win states Trump won in '16. Right now, Biden is doing that--in spades. The Cook Political Report has Biden with a 232-204 Electoral College lead today, exactly the number of electoral votes Clinton won in 2016 (adding the five faithless elector votes). Cook currently has six states and Nebraska's second Congressional District as toss ups. In those six states, all states won by Trump in 2016, RealClearPolitics polling averaging just today:
States Trump won in 2016
+6.5 Biden Pennsylvania (20)
+5.5 Biden Michigan (16)
+4 Biden Arizona (11 Electoral votes)
+3.3 Biden Florida (29)
+2.7 Biden Wisconsin (10)
-1 Biden North Carolina (15)
? Nebraska 2CD (1)
If Biden won all of the states Clinton won and won the swing states above in which he leads today he would beat Trump 318 electoral votes to 220. And Biden today has a cushion that Trump does not have. Biden could afford to lose Florida and Wisconsin and North Carolina if he won the three states in which he has his largest leads today, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Any combination of states adding up to a 38 Biden electoral vote net gain or a Trump 38 vote net loss gives the presidency to Biden. Putting it conversely, starting at Cook's current 204 electoral votes, Trump would have to win Nebraska's 2CD plus North Carolina plus Wisconsin plus Florida plus Arizona just to get to 270. As my son said, Trump is scared and he's an idiot who does not know what to do. Well might he be glum and confused looking at that electoral map. And, he's dangerous, my son again.
It is early, but as 2016 was an election that we had never seen before, 2020 will be also, in my opinion, in this sense: by and large (but there's the rub) people have made up their minds about Donald Trump, for him and against him. That was not the case in 2016. I believe that the winner in 2020 will be determined primarily by voters turning out for Biden, or in the flip of that, on the success of Trump voter suppression. Of course that is why he is going ape shit over mail voting, he has said it publicly himself, "No Republican would ever get elected" if mail voting were permitted.
It is primarily the case that Biden will win if voters swamp Trump like they swamped Senator Sanders in South Carolina and then on Super Tuesday. But it follows from the electoral math that secondarily Biden probably is going to have to change a few people's minds, those who voted for Trump in 2016.
How to do that. The undersigned has thought about how to do that since 2016. It was said of Hillary Clinton in 2016 that she did not make the case well enough for herself. I remember reading that in 2016 and thinking, "She hasn't?" I didn't know that then and I don't know itnow. All that I remember about the campaign messages now is that Trump's serial scandals sucked the oxygen out of the room. I do not remember a single Clinton ad. She certainly did not spend the debates attacking Trump, she was poised, knowledgeable, unflappable, and articulate. She still lost. Does Biden have to make the case for himself as president, not just as "I am not Donald Trump"? Yes. Secondarily, yes. Biden was out of the public eye for three years. Out of sight, out of mind. So Biden should reintroduce himself.
Primarily, however, and I have done a self-check that I am not just projecting my own personality (and I am not sure of that), I think Biden and every surrogate he has should attack Trump relentlessly, daily. The beginning of this post was an account of Trump's personality which is as self-evident as the nose on his face. Trump cannot let an attack, or even a mild criticism, go unanswered. Press button, watch ghoul jump out of box. Those buttons should be pushed until thumbs fall off. About halfway through this post I thought of the Battle of Midway as an analog to this suggestion. The Americans did not get off to a great start at Midway. Their bombers, appropriately named "Buffaloes" in the first waves were slow, couldn't hit anything, and got shot down. But the Americans just kept coming, in wave after wave after wave. They attacked from start to finish and from all directions. The relentlessness of the attacks, even by the ponderous Buffaloes, had this effect: They prevented the Japanese from getting their fighters aloft. They couldn't! The Japanese carriers were sailing in tight circles, in zig-zags, making abrupt turns dodging the American fighters , there was no stable service for the planes to launch. The American attacks went unanswered by the Japanese, the Americans pinned the zeroes to the flight deck and beneath, and made the carriers floating powder kegs. So, and I have made this suggestion previously, Harris as designated hit woman Monday, President Obama Tuesday, Senator Warren Wednesday, Biden Thursday, Bernie, AOC, Senator Kloburchar, Speaker Pelosi, on and on and on. Bait Trump, it doesn't take much: have one of his surrogates outside every damn Trump rally, deprive him of oxygen, keep him on the defensive. Two a day, three a day, that motherfucker won't be able to tweet fast enough. Shoot for sensory overload, tire him, confuse him--Trump is an old guy and Trump cannot not rise to the bait. You attack him from all angles simultaneously--Trump will not recognize it as a calculated strategy to make him short-circuit, he'll rely on his "instincts" and lash out and whatever it is that Trump has as strengths, one is not giving shrewd foresight, he processes information emotionally initially, and he starts to dissemble. Keep Trump pinned downed, make him a walking powder keg--Trump will blow! He will start talking about injecting detergent or fist-fighting Biden. We should want that. What if Trump went over to Biden in frustration during a debate and hair-chested Biden. The more frantic and desperate you make Trump, the more likely he is to detonate and that, getting back to the earlier point, is something that could peel some Trump voters away from Trump, which I think Biden must do. By all accounts from the swing states Biden has had success. The Trump Epidemic hurt Trump, not fatally, but hurt him with even his supporters.
Biden is even older than Trump and Biden looks and acts older. Biden is also a genuinely nice man. When he reintroduces himself to the American voter they will like him. Nobody dislikes Joe Biden. There are a lot of poeple now who want to like a presidential candidate. Biden is the liked by Democrats and unreconstructed Southern segregationist Republicans. He may not have it in him to be an attack dog, so be it. Let Joe be Joe. But there are plenty of others who hate Trump with a purple passion and are straining at the chain desperate to get a piece of Trump's flesh. Release the hounds.
